Showing posts with label Financial Restructure. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Financial Restructure. Show all posts

Sunday, October 26, 2008

Insolvency!

from paul.kedrosky.com


October 23, 2008
The Bank Capital Mirage
The following more or less supports what some have been saying for a while -– that major banks in the U.S. and the U.K. will end up being entirely nationalized before this crisis is over –- but it's still a striking way of looking at the data. The gist: Government recapitalization and other fund-raising has largely been in service of banks' prior subprime losses, while corporate and consumer loans are just starting to hit bank balance sheets. It won't take much to tip banks over into insolvency again.









[via Bloomberg]


Also from ftalphaville.ft.com


This is a singularly arresting chart (same as the one posted above):
It’s Bloomberg’s chart of the day and has been reproduced by Paul Kedrosky on his blog, Infectious Greed.







Kedrosky writes:
The following more or less supports what some have been saying for a while — that major banks in the U.S. and the U.K. will end up being entirely nationalized before this crisis is over — but it’s still a striking way of looking at the data. The gist: Government recapitalization and other fund-raising has largely been in service of banks’ prior subprime losses, while corporate and consumer loans are just starting to hit bank balance sheets. It won’t take much to tip banks over into insolvency again.


This is frightening stuff. Not least because the Fed’s own balance sheet is not looking healthy. Via Brad Setser at the CFR, here’s Paul Swartz’s latest graph:






The balance sheet is likely to grow further too. Jan Hatzius, Goldman’s chief economist has pointed out that during the Japanese credit crisis of the 1990s, the Bank of Japan ended up with a balance sheet equivalent to 30 per cent of GDP. The Fed’s is currently 12 per cent. And on Wednesday the Fed made this announcement:


The Federal Reserve Board on Wednesday announced that it will alter the formula used to determine the interest rate paid to depository institutions on excess balances.
Previously, the rate on excess balances had been set as the lowest federal funds rate target established by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in effect during the reserve maintenance period minus 75 basis points. Under the new formula, the rate on excess balances will be set equal to the lowest FOMC target rate in effect during the reserve maintenance period less 35 basis points. This change will become effective for the maintenance periods beginning Thursday, October 23.


Which is an admission, basically, that the Fed lost control of the Federal Funds Rate. And if that needed proving, take a look at the graph from the New York Fed:








Lastly a nice picture courtesy of http://www.ridingthedax.com/

http://www.ridingthedax.com/2008/10/23/bubble-banks-revisited/






I have been harping for a while about insolvency issues. Looks like many others are catching on. The is one of the first issues that needs to be tackled. Unfortunately President Bush has made it clear that Nationalization wont happen on his watch. Volcker mentioned that banks have been "effectively" nationalized either overtly or through other lines by the Fed. But this is lack of clarity as many of these banks have market capitalizations well in excess of their balance sheet worthiness. What we vitally need right now is clarity (read the end of the insolvency issues) and then an INTELLIGENT strategy to combat the simultaneous develeraging of both banking and consumer levels -(regulating derivatives, debt restructuring of consumers, creation more jobs in the creation of tangible goods in the US, simultaneous creation of incentives for savings and increasing money velocity) etc.

Sunday, October 12, 2008

New World Financial order Part I: European Financial Plan

TEXT-Final statement from euro zone summit in Paris
Sun Oct 12, 2008 3:56pm EDT

PARIS, Oct 12 (Reuters) - Leaders of euro zone countries held an emergency meeting on Sunday to decide pan-European measures aimed at propping up the battered financial sector.
Here is the full final statement released after the summit.

DECLARATION ON A CONCERTED EUROPEAN ACTION PLAN OF THE EURO AREA COUNTRIES

1) Financial systems contribute essentially to the well functioning of our economies and are therefore a necessary prerequisite for growth and a high level of employment. Millions of depositors have trusted their wealth to our financial institutions. The consequences of the current financial market crisis jeopardize the crucial economic role of the financial system.

2) Since the beginning of the crisis, we have acted to address the challenges posed to our financial system: we have committed ourselves to take decisive action and use all availables tools to support relevant institutions and prevent their failure and effectively acted in several cases ; we have increased transparency and disclosure on banks exposure ; we have enhanced retail deposit guarantee protection.

3) Further concerted action is urgently needed given the persistent problems of bank financing and the contagion from the financial crisis to the real economy.

4) We confirm today our commitment to act together in a decisive and comprehensive way in order to restore confidence and proper functioning of the financial system, aiming at restoring appropriate and efficient financing conditions for the economy. In parallel, Member States agree to coordinate measures to address the consequences of the financial crisis on the real economy, in line with 7th of October Ecofin conclusions. In particular, we welcome the EIB's decision to mobilise 30 billions - to support European SME's and its commitment to step up its ability to intervene in infrastructure projects.

5) As members of the Euro area, we share a common responsibility and have to contribute to a common European approach. We invite our European partners to adopt the following principles so that the European Union as a whole can act in a united manner and avoid that national measures adversely affect the functioning of the single market and the other member States.
This requires European Union and Euro area governments, central banks and supervisors to agree to a coordinated approach aiming at : - ensuring appropriate liquidity conditions for financial institutions ; - facilitating the funding of banks, which is currently constrained ; - providing financial institutions with additional capital ressources so as to continue to ensure the proper financing of the economy ; - allowing for an efficient recapitalisation of distressed banks; - ensuring sufficient flexibility in the implementation of accounting rules given current exceptional market circumstances; - enhancing cooperation procedures among European countries. In the current exceptional circumstances, we stress the need for the Commission to continue to act quickly and apply flexibility in state aid decisions, continuing to uphold the principles of the single market and of the state aid regime.
Ensuring appropriate liquidity conditions for financial institutions.

6) We welcome the recent decision by the European Central Bank and other Central Banks in the world to cut their interest rates.

7) We also welcome the decisions by the European Central Bank to improve the conditions for the refinancing of banks and to provide more longer term funding. We look forward to Central Banks considering all ways and means to react flexibly to the current market environment.
We welcome the intention of the ECB and the Eurosystem to react flexibly to the current market environment, in particular in considering to further improve its collateral framework with regard to the eligibility of commercial paper. Facilitating the funding of banks, which is currently constrained.

8) With a view to complementing the actions taken by the European Central Bank in the interbank money market, the Governments of the Euro Area are ready to take proper action in a concerted and coordinated manner to improve market functioning over longer term maturities. The objective of such initiatives should be to address funding problems of liquidity constrained solvent banks.

We welcome the initiatives put forward in some member states to facilitate medium term funding of banks notably through purchase of high quality assets or through swaps of government securities. The worsening of financial conditions in the last four weeks requires additional coordinated actions.

To this aim, Governments would make available for an interim period and on appropriate commercial terms, directly or indirectly, a Government guarantee, insurance, or other similar arrangements of new medium term (up to 5 years) bank senior debt issuance. Depending on domestic market conditions in each country, actions could be targeted at some specific and relevant types of debt issuance.

In all cases, these actions will be designed in order to avoid any distortion in the level playing field and possible abuse at the expense of non beneficiaries of these arrangements. As a consequence: - the price of those instruments will reflect at least their true value with respect to normal market conditions ; - all the financial institutions incorporated and operating in our countries and subsidiary of foreign institutions with substantial operations will be eligible, provided they meet the regulatory capital requirements and other non discriminatory objective criteria ; - Governments may impose further conditions for the beneficiaries of these arrangements, including conditions to ensure an adequate support to real economy; - the scheme will be limited in amount, temporary and will be applied under close scrutiny of financial authorities, until December 31 2009.

While acting quickly as required by circumstances, we will coordinate in providing these guarantees as significant differences in national implementation could have a counter-productive effect, creating distortions in the global banking markets. We will also work in cooperation with the European Central Bank so as to ensure consistency with the management of liquidity by the Eurosystem and compatibility with the operational framework of the Eurosystem. Providing financial institutions with additional capital ressources so as to continue to ensure the proper financing of the economy.

9) So as to allow financial institutions to continue to ensure the proper financing of the Eurozone economy, each Member State will make available to financial institutions Tier 1 capital, e.g. by acquiring preferred shares or other instruments including non dilutive ones. Price conditions shall take into account the market situation of each involved instution. Governments commit themselves to provide capital when needed in appropriate volume while favouring by all available means the raising of private capital. Financial institutions should be obliged to accept additionnal restrictions, notably to preclude possible abuse of such arrangements at the expense of non beneficiaries.

10) Given the exceptional market circumstances, we urge national supervisors, in accordance with the spirit of Basel 2 rules, to implement prudential rules also with a view to stabilising the financial system. Allowing for an efficient recapitalisation of distressed banks.

11) Governments remain committed to support the financial system and therefore to avoid the failure of relevant financial institutions, through appropriate means including recapitalization. In doing so, we will be watchful regarding the interest of taxpayers and ensure that existing shareholders and management bear the due consequences of the intervention. Emergency recapitalisation of a given institution shall be followed by an appropriate restructuring plan.
Ensuring sufficient flexibility in the implementation of accounting rules given current exceptional market circumstances.

12) We welcome the recent initiatives of the Commission regarding conclusions of the 7th October Ecofin regarding the classification of financial instruments by banks between their trading and banking books, notably to ensure a level playing field with our competitors.
Under the current exceptional circumstances, financial and non-financial institutions should be allowed as necessary to value their assets consistently with risk of default assumptions rather than immediate market value which, in illiquid markets may no longer be appropriate.
We ask the competent autorities to take the next steps within the coming days. Enhancing cooperation among European countries.

13) In such circumstances, efficient crisis management requires constant and immediate monitoring. We will therefore set up and strengthen procedures allowing the exchange of information between our Governments, the President of the European Council, the President of the European Commission, the President of the European Central Bank and the President of the Eurogroup. We look forward the European Council on next Wednesday to setting up a mecanism to improve crisis managment between European countries.

14) The Ecofin Council with the support of the Commission and in cooperation with the European Central Bank will report in due time to the European Council on the implementation of these decisions.

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The much needed leadership comes from Europe. Makes one wonder why we didnt see such leadership here. I guess we're too worried to mention recapitalization to large banks in the US since we couldnt have their shareholders suffering. Unless ofcourse the markets do the government job for us. Does the US government honestly not know which banks are insolvent but that Europe does? Volcker - you're needed. Not next year in February - NOW! I guess the sequence of events is supposed to be Europe first, US next and a comprehensive restructuring of a New Financial World Order next weekend. Is this the end of Bretton Woods II as we know it?

Monday, September 22, 2008

New era on Wall Street

from nytimes.com
September 23, 2008
Starting a New Era at Goldman and Morgan
By BEN WHITE

The transformation of Wall Street picked up pace on Monday as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, the last big independent investment banks, moved to restructure into larger, less risk-taking organizations that will be subject to far greater regulation by the Federal Reserve.

The changes came after Goldman and Morgan Stanley on Sunday night received permission from the Federal Reserve to become bank holding companies. The change means they will be able finance their activities with insured deposits but in return must reduce the amount they can borrow to make the kind of big trading bets that drove huge profits, and massive bonuses for executives, over the last several years of Wall Street’s latest Gilded Age.

Morgan Stanley moved quickly into the new era on Monday, announcing that it planned to sell up to a 20 percent stake in itself to Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Japan’s largest commercial bank, for about $8 billion. Mitsubishi has $1.1 trillion in bank deposits, which will help bolster Morgan’s stability of financing. Goldman Sachs is also expected to move to increase its deposit base and add more capital to its balance sheet.

The changes by Morgan Stanley and Goldman essentially bring to an end the era of the big, independent Wall Street investment bank and a return to the model that dominated before the Glass-Steagall Act of 1933 forbade commercial banks from also owning securities firms.
Both banks said they requested the change in their status. But the changes also closely follow comments from executives at both investment houses saying their business model was not broken and that transforming into deposit-funded commercial banks would not necessarily help them perform better. This raised the question of whether the change was really voluntary, which both banks insist it was, or was mandated by a Federal Reserve eager not to have to come to the rescue of another flailing financial institution.

The changes, which came as Congress and the Bush administration rushed to pass a $700 billion rescue of financial firms, amount to a blunt acknowledgment that their model of finance and investing had become too risky and that they needed the cushion of bank deposits that had kept big commercial banks like Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase relatively safe amid the recent turmoil.

It also is a turning point for the high-rolling culture of Wall Street, with its seven-figure bonuses and lavish perks for even midlevel executives.

Commercial banks tend to produce both more modest profits and payouts to top executives.
“The kind of bonuses you saw on Wall Street over the last five years are not something you are likely to ever see again, not in our lifetime,” said Charles Geisst, a Wall Street historian and professor at Manhattan College.

By becoming bank holding companies, Morgan Stanley and Goldman are agreeing to significantly tighter regulations and much closer supervision by bank examiners from several government agencies rather than only the Securities and Exchange Commission. Now, the firms will look more like commercial banks, with more disclosure, higher capital reserves and less risk-taking.
For decades, firms like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs thrived by taking bold bets with their own money, often using enormous amounts of debt to increase their profits, with little outside oversight.

They were the envy of Wall Street, dominating the industry’s most lucrative businesses, landing headline-grabbing deals and advising companies and governments on mergers, stock offerings and restructurings.

But that brash model was torn apart over the last several weeks as investors lost confidence in the way they made those bets during the recent credit boom, when investment banks expanded with aplomb into esoteric securities, the risks of which were not easily understood.

Over several harrowing days, clients started pulling their money, share prices plunged and these banks’ entire enterprises were brought to the brink.

In exchange for subjecting themselves to more regulation, the companies will have access to the full array of the Federal Reserve’s lending facilities.

It should help them avoid the fate of Lehman Brothers, which filed for bankruptcy last week, and Bear Stearns and Merrill Lynch — both of which agreed to be acquired by big bank holding companies.

The decision by the banks to become a holding company also raises questions about whether the Federal Reserve will seek to regulate hedge funds, many of the largest of which closely resemble investment banks like Goldman.

Just a year ago investment banks, the titans of global finance, considered bank regulation a millstone to be avoided at all costs. Commercial banks have to subject themselves to restrictions on how much money they can borrow and what kinds of businesses they can be in. Lobbyists for firms like Goldman spent years fending off closer supervision of their business.
As bank holding companies, the two banks, whose shares have lost about half their value this year, will have to reduce the amount of money they can borrow relative to their capital.
That will make them more financially sound but will also significantly limit their profits. Today, both Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have $1 of capital for every $22 of assets. By contrast, Bank of America’s has less than $11 for every $1 of capital.

JPMorgan Chase acquired Bear Stearns this spring in a fire sale brokered by the federal government, while Bank of America has agreed to buy Merrill Lynch for $50 billion.
As bank holding companies, Morgan and Goldman will have greater access to the discount window of the Federal Reserve, which banks can use to borrow money from the central bank. While they were allowed to draw on temporary Fed lending facilities in recent months, they could not borrow against the same wide array of collateral that commercial banks could. The discount window access for investment banks is expected to be phased out in January.

It will take time for Goldman and Morgan to transform into fully regulated banks because they cannot quickly reduce how much money they borrow relative to their assets. Both banks are likely to seek waivers from the Federal Reserve to give them time to comply with the capital requirements imposed on deposit-funded commercial banks.

The Fed and the Securities and Exchange Commission have had examiners at investment banks since March, giving regulators huge insight into their operations.

Both banks already have limited retail deposit-taking businesses, which they plan to expand over time. Morgan Stanley had $36 billion in retail deposits as of Aug. 31 and Goldman Sachs had $20 billion in deposits.

“We believe that Goldman Sachs, under Federal Reserve supervision, will be regarded as an even more secure institution with an exceptionally clean balance sheet and a greater diversity of funding sources,” Lloyd C.Blankfein, the chairman and chief executive of Goldman, said in a statement on Sunday night.

John J. Mack, the chairman and chief executive of Morgan Stanley, said: “This new bank holding structure will ensure that Morgan Stanley is in the strongest possible position — with the stability and flexibility to seize opportunities in the rapidly changing financial marketplace.”

In recent days, Morgan Stanley had sought other ways to bolster its capital and had been in advanced talks with China’s sovereign wealth fund and others about raising billions of dollars, people briefed on the matter said Sunday night. It had also been talking about a merger with Wachovia, a large commercial bank based in Charlotte, N.C.

With their transition to operating as bank holding companies, those talks are likely to take a different form, because now Morgan Stanley can buy a commercial bank.

How the mighty have fallen. This ends the era of Investment Banks and 30:1 leverage and brings us into a European model with a merging of deposit and investment banking where fractal banking ratios allow leverage of about 9:1. I still feel thats very high but its "manageable." About time.

Thursday, September 18, 2008

This is how you squeeze an Investment Bank

Bank of America Said to Cut Off Merrill Before Deal (Update1)
By Bradley Keoun and David Mildenberg

Sept. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Merrill Lynch & Co. Chief Executive Officer John Thain told employees that Bank of America Corp. ``cut our trading lines'' in the days before it bought the firm, signaling a loss of confidence in the brokerage's ability to pay.

Thain made the comments while explaining his decision to sell Merrill, according to five employees who attended the event at the company's New York headquarters. The Sept. 15 remarks were rebroadcast on an internal system to all 60,000 employees.

``Before the trade was done Bank of America cut our trading lines,'' Thain said at the meeting, according to the people, who declined to be named because they weren't authorized to discuss the internal meeting. ``We did get them to put it back.''

The disclosure shows how close at least one of Merrill's trading partners was to reducing its credit after a 36 percent decline in the firm's stock price last week. The shares tumbled on speculation Merrill might be the next securities firm to collapse following Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., which filed for bankruptcy protection on Sept. 15 after investors and trading partners lost confidence in the New York-based company.

Since the Bank of America agreement was announced on Sept. 14, Merrill has gained 17 percent in New York trading. The second-biggest U.S. securities firm by market value rose 55 cents, or 2.8 percent, to $19.91 in composite trading today as of 11:14 a.m.

Merrill spokeswoman Jessica Oppenheim declined to elaborate on the Bank of America moves or say whether other firms had pulled back their trading lines. Scott Silvestri, a spokesman for Charlotte, North Carolina-based Bank of America, declined to comment, citing a policy of not discussing client matters.

Trading Lines
Trading lines include credit or liquidity sources that securities firms use to facilitate transactions or to meet cash needs.

Merrill began its talks with Bank of America on Sept. 13, even as the bank was considering a bid for Lehman, and struck a deal by nightfall the next day.

Since then, Merrill's stock was one of only two gainers -- the other is Jefferies Group Inc. -- in the 10-company Amex Securities Broker-Dealer Index. Morgan Stanley, the third-biggest firm, is down 46 percent this week, while No. 1 Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has tumbled 31 percent.

To contact the reporters on this story: Bradley Keoun in New York at bkeoun@bloomberg.net; David Mildenberg in Charlotte at dmildenberg@bloomberg.net. Last Updated: September 18, 2008 11:21 EDT