Calculated Risk on Employment Numbers and Part time Employed

Employment Declines Sharply, Unemployment Rises to 7.2 Percent

by CalculatedRisk on 1/09/2009 08:30:00 AM

From the BLS:

Nonfarm payroll employment declined sharply in December, and the unemployment rate rose from 6.8 to 7.2 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Payroll employment fell by 524,000 over the month and by 1.9 million over the last 4 months of 2008. In December, job losses were large and widespread across most major industry sectors.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the unemployment rate and the year over year change in employment vs. recessions.

Nonfarm payrolls decreased by 524,00 in December, and November payrolls were revised down to a loss of 584,000 jobs. The economy has lost over 1.5 million jobs over the last 3 months alone!

The unemployment rate rose to 7.2 percent; the highest level since January 1993.

Year over year employment is now strongly negative (there were 2.6 million fewer Americans employed in Dec 2008 than in Dec 2007). This is another extremely weak employment report ...

Posted by
CalculatedRisk


on 1/09/2009 08:30:00 AM

Over 8 Million Part Time Workers

by CalculatedRisk on 1/09/2009 09:01:00 AM

From the BLS report:

In December, the number of persons who worked part time for economic reasons (some-times referred to as involuntary part-time workers) continued to increase, reaching 8.0 million. The number of such workers rose by 3.4 million over the past 12 months. This category includes persons who would like to work full time but were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find full-time jobs.

Click on graph for larger image.

Not only has the unemployment rate risen sharply to 7.2%, but the number of workers only able to find part time jobs (or have had their hours cut for economic reasons) is now over 8 million.

Of course the U.S. population is significantly larger today (about 305 million) than in the early '80s (about 228 million) when the number of part time workers almost reached 7 million, but the rapid increase in part time workers is pretty stunning.

Posted by
CalculatedRisk


on 1/09/2009 09:01:00 AM

Unemployment claims rise over 400K

Thursday, July 03, 2008
Unemployment Claims Over 400K
by CalculatedRisk

First a correction: last week I mentioned that historically weekly claims increase after Congress passes an extension to unemployment insurance benefits. In the past, workers who had exhausted their benefits could reapply for extended benefits, and these workers were included in the first time claims report. Although the above was true during previous downturns, the DOL BLS has apparently changed their methodology and the extended benefits are not included in first time claims anymore.So the jump to 400K first time claims is not the result of Congress extending benefits (and it would be too soon anyway).Here is the current report from the Department of Labor for the week ending June 28, showing initial unemployment claims increased to 404,000, and the 4-week moving average was 390,500.

This graph shows the weekly claims and the four week moving average of weekly unemployment claims since 1989.

The four week moving average has been trending upwards for the last few months, and is now at 390,500 - solidly above the possible recession level (approximately 350K).

Posted by
CalculatedRisk
This graph shows the weekly claims and the four week moving average of weekly unemployment claims since 1989. The four week moving average has been trending upwards for the last few months, and is now at 390,500 - solidly above the possible recession level (approximately 350K).

Thank you again CR and Tanta for all the work you do. Calculated Risk listed in the blogroll is one of the best (if not THE best) economics blog out there. Unemployment is rising. As laid of workers retrain, for profit Education stocks will rise. Please do your own research. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell anything. This blog is not responsible for losses.