Friday, June 26, 2009

Disturbing Fibonacci chart

Credit - David Steckler (HGS contributor)

Friday, June 19, 2009

The Experiment with Tyco

I am publishing this trade virtually because I think this is a good trade but I am on options rookie so I am trying out my playbook here.

Here's what I read on Friday Jun 19th Quadruple Expiration Day.

Tyco has been trading in a reasonably tight range recently, and that has prompted one options trader to step in.The security company is down just $0.04 on the day to trade at $26.85. It broke above $29 on the first day of the month, after a run up from near $17 in early March. TYC shares have gotten back above the 200 day moving average, through which the stock broke down back in August when the price was above $40. The options trade is out in October, with the 26 puts and the 27.50 calls. There were 6,524 contracts traded in each at the same time. This appears to be a short straddle, with the October 26 puts sold for $2.05 and the October 27.5 calls traded for $2 even. If this was in fact a volatility sale, the trade will profit up to $31.50 and down to $22. This trade would go along with the falling volatility levels. Implied and historical volatility are both around 39 percent, continuing to fall over the last four months and now at their lowest levels since last October.

PLAY 1 - Short Straddle on Jul 27.5 TYC
I didnt know how to take advantage of this today but now sitting here at home with my playbook I am wondering what would happen if I were to do a short straddle myself but do it for July instead. Selling TYCSY this evening if it was possible would net me 1.40. Selling TYCGY would net me 0.75 for a total of 2.15 for the trade. Ofcourse a short straddle has unlimited risk on the upside substantial downside risk but given the low volatility of the stock - collecting 2.15 doesnt sound bad does it? We will revisit this trade on Jul expiration and see where we sit.
I can tolerate a fall from current price to 24.87 to a rise upto 28.87

PLAY 2 - Short Strangle on Jul 26 and 27.5 TYC
Sell TYCSK (Jul 26 TYC Put) - 0.7
Sell TYCGY (Jul 27.5 TYC Call) - 0.75
Yielding a net 1.55

Of the two plays - Play 2 Yields a lower amount but I like it better ! With Play 2, I can tolerate a fall in the stock price upto 24.50 and a rise upto 29. As you can see with Play 2 - I have a better tolerance of swings in price. Looking at TYC charts - I see the 50-200 golden cross (bullish) but a parabolic stop and reverse (bearish). Near term I think the bearish trend wins and we should see price gradually migrate downwards with first resistance at the 50 day MA. If it goes through that the very gradually sloping 200 MA is at around 24. As I think out loud here - perhaps it might be better to wait nearer term to see if TYC bounces at the 50 day MA before jumping into the short strangle. Will update as I have time.

Wednesday, June 17, 2009

Interesting Day in the Markets (OPEX week Jun 17)

TRADING THOUGHTS (This is intended as a personal blog for me to jot down my daily thoughts and help with the learning process). PLEASE DO NOT COPY ANYTHING I DO ON THIS BLOG - I am not responsible for any trade losses you will incur.

Today was an interesting day in the markets and possibly a turning point in the rally we have seen. The last couple of days had seen some intense selling especially in small caps with large beta. I had a bunch of those in my portfolio. The selling was brutal from the open. It actually seemed to diminish as the day wore on. I sold my entire portfolio today (well almost my entire portfolio - I continue to hold UNG and VTG). Natural gas seems to be holding up really well here and its about that time of the year anyway. UNG is a solid play off of Natural Gas futures. VTG is a driller and will be profitable this year. They have also been able to raise money in private placement.

Towards the end of the day - Tim Knight ( - went short the ES futures at 911.50 and I in turn bought 400 SDS at 56.30. Then around 3:45 - there was very interesting action in AXL, VTG and TEN. Some huge buys came in especially in AXL. Either these were people short covering or actually buying - I am not sure. Regardless, AXL went positive for a short time but fell back down. VTG went positive and stayed positive. In the markets as well - they started turning +ve briefly. Looking at that action - I immediately sold my SDS for a small profit at 56.65 (I intended to sell SDS before end of day anyway). SDS ended the day at 56.83

The S&P is currently sitting ON its 200 day moving average but its MACD has crossed and turned lower. Saw an interesting video by Adam Hewinson of and Marketclub on the INX (S&P) where he sees it turning lower with the first fibonacci around 881. From previous resistance levels as well S&P seems to be headed to 880. I am in all cash and will be looking to play the short-side tomorrow. Overshadowing all this is whether or not OPEX (which is this week) is messing with us. My impression looking at was that OPEX week would make the markets trend lower given what was suggesting. I was thinking of buying puts on Friday to protect my gains (on Friday - I was sitting on a much better profit level in my portfolio). I didnt buy them and I paid for that mistake. I am now all cash with some small positions.

I have created portfolios in FINVIZ (because the stocks I had purchased are strong small cap names like - VTG, CENX, AXL, GRO, SEED, FEED, HOGS, CHU, BBY, COT, CPY, CENT, FUQI, APWR etc).

Just got an email from Market Club - BMI went higher to 42 (argghhh) and all healthcare stocks seem to be higher today. RDY is looking quite strong. Within small caps - best healthcare action in the last 3 days has been in MRGE. UBET and MNKD also received strong rankings of 100+

Friday, June 5, 2009

The End of the Long Winter

Ok so its been a while. A lot of things have changed.

The markets seem to have put in a solid bottom in March. I sent out an email to the rest of my office in mid April entitled "The End of the Long Winter."

I believe Obama created this bottom. Smart man. He knows that the driving force in any economy is confidence. Animal spirits if you will. The play a disproportionate role in this economy. And those of you who followed Obama's call to invest in the market are now doing quite well. The S&P bottomed at 666 with a beautiful double bottom and then carved out a beautiful cup and handle formation and has broken out.

Small caps especially Chinese small caps are going absolutely nuts. So are Russian stocks. All are raging buys and are going up as fast and hard as they fell down. Look at the charts of stocks like: SEED, FEED, GRO, SOL, CHU, YTEC, MTL, IGC etc. Look at the macro ETFs of things like RSX, GUR, FXI and INP. Look at TLT crashing and TBT rocking. They all tell a micro and macro story. I am making solid returns in the past month or two on the long side in both stocks and options.

This is a good time to be in the markets. New stocks are powering higher. Look at stocks of companies like AXL, XTXI etc. American Axle a key automotive supplier is now starting to climb. Yes, can you believe it? An automotive supplier. And it has a long way to go as today its only around 2.6 dollars. It could easily be around 15 in the next year. And as it does, I intend on riding it all the way. As always excercise caution and ALWAYS, ALWAYS use a stop loss.

This blog is for informational purposes only for my entertainment and not intended to be investment advice. Follow anything I can and you can and will incur a loss. DO NOT PUT YOUR MONEY TO WORK ON ANYTHING WRITTEN HERE ON THIS BLOG. DONT MAKE ME HURT YOU!