January 7, 2009
Dossier From India Gives New Details of Mumbai Attacks
By SOMINI SENGUPTA
From www.nytimes.com
NEW DELHI — In the beginning, they were 32. A squad of suicide bombers raised in Pakistan, they were taught how to make bombs, withstand interrogation, and fight to their death.
They were whittled down to 10, and on a Saturday morning in November, they set sail from Karachi with coordinates plotted on a global positioning set. Once in Mumbai, they went on a killing spree, leaving 163 dead, all the while receiving detailed instructions and pep talks from their handlers across the border. Details of their gory mission have been compiled by Indian authorities and officially shared Monday with the Pakistani government. The New York Times has seen a copy of the dossier.
The information seems designed to achieve at least two Indian objectives. First, it seeks to demonstrate that the attackers were sent from Pakistan. It contains photographs of materials found on the fishing trawler, from a bottle of Mountain Dew soda packaged in Karachi to pistols that bore the markings of a gun manufacturer in Peshawar to a Pakistani-made matchbox, detergent powder, and shaving cream, called “Touchme.”
Second, it seeks to rally international support for the Indian effort to squeeze Pakistan. It contains a list of 26 foreigners killed in the attacks, chronicles India’s efforts in recent years to persuade Pakistan to investigate suspects involved in terror attacks inside India and shut down terror training camps inside Pakistani territory. In its final pages, it demands that Pakistan hand over “conspirators” to face trial in India and comply with its promise to stop terrorist groups from functioning inside its territory. It was shared this week with diplomats from friendly nations; one described it as “comprehensive,” another as “convincing.”
Although the dossier takes pains not to blame serving or former officials in Pakistan’s army or spy agency, Indian officials have consistently hinted at their complicity, at least in training the commando-style fighters who carried it out. On Tuesday, the Indian Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh, upped the ante but stopped short of making a direct accusation. “There is enough evidence to show that, given the sophistication and military precision of the attack, it must have had the support of some official agencies in Pakistan,” he said.
Pakistan on Tuesday rejected the Indian allegation. “Scoring points like this will only move us further away from focusing on the very real and present danger of regional and global terrorism,” Sherry Rehman, Pakistan’s Information Minister, said in a statement, according to the Associated Press. “It is our fond resolve to insure that non-state actors to do not use Pakistan’s soil to launch terrorist attack any where in the world.”
Pakistan has said it is examining the information dispatched by India.
The dossier, along with a power-point presentation made to diplomats here, narrates a journey of zeal, foibles and careful planning, one whose blow-by-blow media coverage was followed by handlers, believed to be in Pakistan, and used in turn to caution the gunmen on the ground about the movement of Indian security forces and motivate them to keep fighting.
“Everything is being recorded by the media. Inflict the maximum damage. Keep fighting. Don’t be taken alive,” says a caller to a gunman inside the Oberoi Hotel close to 4 a.m. on the first day of the three-day siege.
“Throw one of two grenades at the Navy and police teams, which are outside,” came one instruction to the gunmen inside the Taj Mahal hotel.
“Keep two magazines and three grenades aside and expend the rest of your ammunition,” went another set of instructions to the attackers inside Nariman House, which housed an Orthodox Jewish center, on the second evening, with a directive to “conclude” the operation the next morning.
The telephone conversations, selected transcripts of which have been compiled in the dossier, chronicle a steady exchange between the attackers in Mumbai and their counselors.
At the Taj, they are asked whether they have set the hotel on fire; one of the attackers says he is preparing a mattress for that purpose. At the Oberoi, one of them asks whether to spare women (“kill them,” comes the terse reply) and Muslims (he is told to release them and kill the rest, all the while keeping the phone line open so their interlocutors can hear the gunfire). At Nariman House, a residential building which housed a Jewish community center, they are told how to damage India’s standing with a key ally, Israel.
“Keep in mind that the hostages are of use only as long as you do not come under fire because of their safety,” a handler, identified only as Wassi, exhorts. “If you are still threatened, then don’t saddle yourself with the burden of the hostages. Immediately kill them.”
“Yes, we shall do accordingly,” the gunman inside Nariman House replies. “God willing.”
“If the hostages are killed, it will spoil relations between India and Israel,” Wassi continues.
According to the investigation, the 10 men boarded a small boat in Karachi at 8 a.m. on Nov. 22, sailed a short distance before boarding a bigger carrier called the Al-Husseini, believed to be owned by Zaki-ur-Rehman Lakhvi, a key operative of a banned Pakistan-based terrorist group called Lashkar-e-Taiba. The following day, the 10 men took over an Indian fishing trawler, called the MV Kuber, killed four of its crew members, spared its captain, Amar Singh Solanki, and sailed 550 nautical miles across the Arabian Sea.
Each man had two-hour watch duties on board. Each carried individual weapon packs: a Kalashnikov, a 9-millimeter pistol, ammunition, hand grenades and a bomb, weighing 8 kilograms and containing a military-grade explosive called RDX, steel ball bearings and a timer with instructions inscribed in Urdu.
By 4 p.m. on Nov. 26, the trawler approached the shores of Mumbai. The leader of the crew, identified by Indian investigators as Ismail Khan, 25, from a town called Dera Ismail Khan in the Northwest Frontier Province, contacted their handlers and received instructions. When darkness set in, they killed the captain of the trawler, Mr. Solanki. Then they boarded a motorized dinghy, the engine of which, Indian investigators say, bore marks from a Lahore-based importing company. They reached Mumbai at about 8:30 p.m., and in five teams of two, set upon their targets: the city’s busiest railway station known as Victoria Terminus, a tourist haunt called Café Leopold, the Jewish center in Nariman House, and two luxury hotels, the Taj and Oberoi.
They made one mistake. As they were leaving the fishing trawler, they told their handlers later on the phone, the waves were high and another boat was approaching, which they feared was an Indian Navy ship. They left behind Ismail Khan’s satellite phone; it was recovered by Indian investigators and its photograph included in the dossier. A GPS, also recovered from the trawler suggests they kept a safe distance of at least 60 kilometers from Indian shore until they got closer to Mumbai.
The gunmen seemed to use Indian mobile phones during the course of the attacks. Their counselors, 6 in all, used Voice-Over-Internet-Protocol numbers, including one from an American company called “Callphonex.”
The telephone calls stop, inexplicably, about 24 hours into the attacks.
The last call transcript in the dossier is at 10:26 p.m. on Nov. 27, between a gunman inside Nariman House and his interlocutor. “Brother you have to fight,” says the caller. “This is a matter of the prestige of Islam.”
By the morning of Nov. 29, Indian forces had killed 9 of the fighters.
And then, there was one: the sole survivor, Mohammed Ajmal Kasab, is in the custody of the Mumbai police. His interrogation turned up the most frightening detail. He was part of a cadre of 32 would-be suicide bombers, that was later joined by an additional three men. A team of six went to Indian-administered Kashmir, Mr. Kasab told his interrogators.
Ten were kept in isolation for more than three months, in a house near Karachi, until they were instructed to go to Mumbai.
The dossier says nothing about what happened to the remaining trainees. Whether or where they will strike next remains a mystery.
Richard A. Oppel Jr. contributed reporting from Islamabad, Pakistan.
Tuesday, January 6, 2009
Monday, January 5, 2009
Hillary Hahn: Classical Artist of the Year 2008
Hillary is phenomenal: subtle, rich, complex, nuanced
Here she is performing Paganini
For comparison - here's Milstein with the same Paganiniana
Milstein - brilliant, virtuoso, mathematical, precise
Hillary Hahn deserves Artist of the Year
Here she is performing Paganini
For comparison - here's Milstein with the same Paganiniana
Milstein - brilliant, virtuoso, mathematical, precise
Hillary Hahn deserves Artist of the Year
Eric Lewis 2009 Comic
This really says it all doesnt it? From the Calculated Risk blog - this is a comic by Eric G Lewis (who's website will be up soon at http://www.ericglewis.com/)
Sunday, January 4, 2009
Schilling forecasts S&P to reach 600 this year
Gary Schilling - one of the best forecasters of 2008 - all of his 2008 predictions (13 of them came true). Here's a preview of what he is thinking.
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/149147/S&P-600:-Thats-Gary-Shillings-Forecast-for-2009,-Not-an-Index&comment_start=21
S&P 600: That's Gary Shilling's Forecast for 2009, Not an Index
Posted Dec 19, 2008 12:33pm EST by Aaron Task in Investing, Commodities, Recession
Related: ^dji, ^gspc, FXI, TLT, EEM, UDN, SPY
The S&P 500 could fall to as low as 600 in 2009 and "alternative assets" like commodities and currencies will provide no shelter for investors, says Gary Shilling, president of A. Gary Shilling & Co.
Having been appropriately bearish heading into this year, Shilling sees "few good places to hide" in 2009. Currently, Shilling is long Treasuries and the dollar, but notes the bond market's rally is getting long in the tooth.
Other than defensive plays like utilities and consumer staples, Shilling is short stocks. His "S&P 600" prediction, a 33% drop from current levels, is based on a view that S&P earnings will be $40 per share next year (vs. the consensus of $83) and the index will trade with a P/E multiple of 15. (Here's the math: $40 EPS x 15 P/E = 600.)
Shilling is also short commodities and remains bearish on emerging markets, most notably China. The theory China, most notably, could "decouple" from the U.S. doesn't hold up to scrutiny, Shilling says, as evinced by the slowdown of China's economy and the fact their middle class isn't large enough to sustain growth internally.
Against that backdrop, Shilling isn't only bearish on China as an investment, he sees the potential for major social upheaval in the world's most populous nation.
Yeah... this is definitely THE bear case. I happen to be in the bear camp along with Schilling and Roubini. Be careful out there.
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/149147/S&P-600:-Thats-Gary-Shillings-Forecast-for-2009,-Not-an-Index&comment_start=21
S&P 600: That's Gary Shilling's Forecast for 2009, Not an Index
Posted Dec 19, 2008 12:33pm EST by Aaron Task in Investing, Commodities, Recession
Related: ^dji, ^gspc, FXI, TLT, EEM, UDN, SPY
The S&P 500 could fall to as low as 600 in 2009 and "alternative assets" like commodities and currencies will provide no shelter for investors, says Gary Shilling, president of A. Gary Shilling & Co.
Having been appropriately bearish heading into this year, Shilling sees "few good places to hide" in 2009. Currently, Shilling is long Treasuries and the dollar, but notes the bond market's rally is getting long in the tooth.
Other than defensive plays like utilities and consumer staples, Shilling is short stocks. His "S&P 600" prediction, a 33% drop from current levels, is based on a view that S&P earnings will be $40 per share next year (vs. the consensus of $83) and the index will trade with a P/E multiple of 15. (Here's the math: $40 EPS x 15 P/E = 600.)
Shilling is also short commodities and remains bearish on emerging markets, most notably China. The theory China, most notably, could "decouple" from the U.S. doesn't hold up to scrutiny, Shilling says, as evinced by the slowdown of China's economy and the fact their middle class isn't large enough to sustain growth internally.
Against that backdrop, Shilling isn't only bearish on China as an investment, he sees the potential for major social upheaval in the world's most populous nation.
Yeah... this is definitely THE bear case. I happen to be in the bear camp along with Schilling and Roubini. Be careful out there.
Saturday, January 3, 2009
Wheeeee..... YEAH BABY, YEAH
Wing Suit Base Jumping.... This is a BLAST to even just watch - holy macarena!!!!!
wingsuit base jumping from Ali on Vimeo.
Would you love to do this? WINGSUIT JUMPING! Lets go.
wingsuit base jumping from Ali on Vimeo.
Would you love to do this? WINGSUIT JUMPING! Lets go.
ECB Papademos: Don't see recovery in 2009
Papademos Says ECB to ‘Act Appropriately’ in Slowdown (Update2)
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By Simon Kennedy
Jan. 3 (Bloomberg) -- European Central Bank Vice President Lucas Papademos said an economic recovery may not begin until next year and that policy makers have the scope to cut interest rates if inflation slows further.
“The economic outlook is unusually uncertain,” Papademos said in an interview with Germany’s WirtschaftsWoche magazine published today. “It is quite possible that the recovery will not start until the beginning of 2010.”
Having reduced their key interest rate by 175 basis points since early October to 2.5 percent, ECB policy makers enter the new year under pressure to cut more deeply amid Europe’s first recession in 15 years. Retail sales fell for a seventh month in December, manufacturing shrank at a record pace and lending to the private sector stagnated, reports showed this past week.
The economy may be even weaker in 2009 than the ECB’s prediction of last month for a contraction of about 0.5 percent, Papademos said. The Frankfurt-based central bank will “act appropriately” and has room to do so if the slowdown threatens price stability, which the ECB defines as inflation just below 2 percent in the medium term, he said.
“If, in our assessment, the risks to price stability change further in the coming months, monetary policy could be eased further and we will act appropriately,” Papademos said.
Inflation to Fall
The ECB’s current view is that the 16-nation economy will remain weak and contract for two to three more quarters with a “gradual recovery” in the second half of the year at the earliest, he said. While it is premature for the bank to revise its projections it “cannot rule out that economic activity in 2009 may turn out to be weaker than suggested,” he said.
Although deflation, a sustained period of falling prices, isn’t likely in the euro-area, inflation may “fall considerably” in the middle of 2009 before accelerating toward levels consistent with price stability by the end of the year, Papademos said.
The inflation rate fell to 1.8 percent last month, beneath the ECB’s target for the first time since July 2007, according to the median of 20 forecasts given by economists before a report scheduled for release in the coming week.
The fall in the price of oil from its peak of $147 a barrel last July as well as lower interest rates and taxes should support expansion, Papademos said.
Rate Expectations
Economists at Bank of America Corp. are among those anticipating the economy will be weaker than the ECB projects this year with a forecast for a 2.5 percent contraction. They expect the ECB to cut its benchmark to 1.5 percent this quarter even as officials such as President Jean-Claude Trichet signal a reluctance to pursue aggressive rate cuts.
The ECB’s governing council next meets Jan. 15 with investors indicating they expect a cut of at least 25 basis points, according to Eonia forward contracts.
Papademos said the ECB had “absolutely not” lagged behind counterparts such as the Federal Reserve in combating the economic fallout from the financial crisis. The Fed last month cut its main interest rate to as low as zero for the first time.
The economies and mandates of central banks differ and interest rates were higher elsewhere than in Europe when the turmoil began, Papademos said. “The fact that some central banks have lowered their key rates more quickly than us does not mean they are ahead of us,” he said.
‘More Time’
The difficulty facing the ECB is that the crisis means markets are not passing on interest rate cuts to the ECB as fast as they would traditionally, Papademos said. “In the current environment, it will take more time for interest rate cuts to affect economic activity and their impact may be weaker than is usually the case,” he said.
The ECB official urged banks to take advantage of government funding and better disclose the losses and risk they face. A proposal for a clearing house to guarantee loans between banks is a “concept worth exploring,” he said.
The ECB provided a transcript of Papademos interview to news media.
To contact the reporters on this story: Simon Kennedy in Paris at skennedy4@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: January 3, 2009 08:01 EST
Email | Print | A A A
By Simon Kennedy
Jan. 3 (Bloomberg) -- European Central Bank Vice President Lucas Papademos said an economic recovery may not begin until next year and that policy makers have the scope to cut interest rates if inflation slows further.
“The economic outlook is unusually uncertain,” Papademos said in an interview with Germany’s WirtschaftsWoche magazine published today. “It is quite possible that the recovery will not start until the beginning of 2010.”
Having reduced their key interest rate by 175 basis points since early October to 2.5 percent, ECB policy makers enter the new year under pressure to cut more deeply amid Europe’s first recession in 15 years. Retail sales fell for a seventh month in December, manufacturing shrank at a record pace and lending to the private sector stagnated, reports showed this past week.
The economy may be even weaker in 2009 than the ECB’s prediction of last month for a contraction of about 0.5 percent, Papademos said. The Frankfurt-based central bank will “act appropriately” and has room to do so if the slowdown threatens price stability, which the ECB defines as inflation just below 2 percent in the medium term, he said.
“If, in our assessment, the risks to price stability change further in the coming months, monetary policy could be eased further and we will act appropriately,” Papademos said.
Inflation to Fall
The ECB’s current view is that the 16-nation economy will remain weak and contract for two to three more quarters with a “gradual recovery” in the second half of the year at the earliest, he said. While it is premature for the bank to revise its projections it “cannot rule out that economic activity in 2009 may turn out to be weaker than suggested,” he said.
Although deflation, a sustained period of falling prices, isn’t likely in the euro-area, inflation may “fall considerably” in the middle of 2009 before accelerating toward levels consistent with price stability by the end of the year, Papademos said.
The inflation rate fell to 1.8 percent last month, beneath the ECB’s target for the first time since July 2007, according to the median of 20 forecasts given by economists before a report scheduled for release in the coming week.
The fall in the price of oil from its peak of $147 a barrel last July as well as lower interest rates and taxes should support expansion, Papademos said.
Rate Expectations
Economists at Bank of America Corp. are among those anticipating the economy will be weaker than the ECB projects this year with a forecast for a 2.5 percent contraction. They expect the ECB to cut its benchmark to 1.5 percent this quarter even as officials such as President Jean-Claude Trichet signal a reluctance to pursue aggressive rate cuts.
The ECB’s governing council next meets Jan. 15 with investors indicating they expect a cut of at least 25 basis points, according to Eonia forward contracts.
Papademos said the ECB had “absolutely not” lagged behind counterparts such as the Federal Reserve in combating the economic fallout from the financial crisis. The Fed last month cut its main interest rate to as low as zero for the first time.
The economies and mandates of central banks differ and interest rates were higher elsewhere than in Europe when the turmoil began, Papademos said. “The fact that some central banks have lowered their key rates more quickly than us does not mean they are ahead of us,” he said.
‘More Time’
The difficulty facing the ECB is that the crisis means markets are not passing on interest rate cuts to the ECB as fast as they would traditionally, Papademos said. “In the current environment, it will take more time for interest rate cuts to affect economic activity and their impact may be weaker than is usually the case,” he said.
The ECB official urged banks to take advantage of government funding and better disclose the losses and risk they face. A proposal for a clearing house to guarantee loans between banks is a “concept worth exploring,” he said.
The ECB provided a transcript of Papademos interview to news media.
To contact the reporters on this story: Simon Kennedy in Paris at skennedy4@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: January 3, 2009 08:01 EST
A central banker will never come right out and say that there wont be a recovery in 2009. But we have to interpret that Papademos is essentially saying that there wont be a recovery in 2009. The ECB is signaling a change of their optimisitic forecast and will cut interest rates this quarter.
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