Gary Shilling's 2009 Predictions: We're Still Screwed
Henry Blodget Jan 6, 09 3:58 PM
Last year, economist Gary Shilling humiliated the rest of the economic forecasting industry by going 13 for 13.
As promised, here are Gary's predictions for this year:
Every one of our 13 investment strategies for 2008 worked last year. Some of them have been fully exploited so we dropped them from this year's list. But others are only partially achieved in view of our dire outlook that the worst global financial crisis and deepest worldwide recession since the 1930s will continue throughout 2009.
So we've retained 10 of our 2008 strategies this year, some in modified form, and added two new ones.
1. Sell homebuilder stocks and bonds.
2. If you plan to sell your house, second home or investment houses anytime soon, do so yesterday.
3. Sell some housing-related stocks.
4. Sell some consumer discretionary spending companies.
5. Sell most commercial real estate.
6. Sell some commodities.
7. Sell emerging market equities.
8. Sell emerging market debt.
9. Buy the dollar.
10. Sell stocks in general. (S&P 500 to 600)
11. Sell consumer lenders’ equities.
12. Buy, carefully, high-grade bonds.
from: clusterstock.alleyinsider.com
Showing posts with label Gary Schilling. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Gary Schilling. Show all posts
Friday, February 6, 2009
Sunday, January 4, 2009
Schilling forecasts S&P to reach 600 this year
Gary Schilling - one of the best forecasters of 2008 - all of his 2008 predictions (13 of them came true). Here's a preview of what he is thinking.
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/149147/S&P-600:-Thats-Gary-Shillings-Forecast-for-2009,-Not-an-Index&comment_start=21
S&P 600: That's Gary Shilling's Forecast for 2009, Not an Index
Posted Dec 19, 2008 12:33pm EST by Aaron Task in Investing, Commodities, Recession
Related: ^dji, ^gspc, FXI, TLT, EEM, UDN, SPY
The S&P 500 could fall to as low as 600 in 2009 and "alternative assets" like commodities and currencies will provide no shelter for investors, says Gary Shilling, president of A. Gary Shilling & Co.
Having been appropriately bearish heading into this year, Shilling sees "few good places to hide" in 2009. Currently, Shilling is long Treasuries and the dollar, but notes the bond market's rally is getting long in the tooth.
Other than defensive plays like utilities and consumer staples, Shilling is short stocks. His "S&P 600" prediction, a 33% drop from current levels, is based on a view that S&P earnings will be $40 per share next year (vs. the consensus of $83) and the index will trade with a P/E multiple of 15. (Here's the math: $40 EPS x 15 P/E = 600.)
Shilling is also short commodities and remains bearish on emerging markets, most notably China. The theory China, most notably, could "decouple" from the U.S. doesn't hold up to scrutiny, Shilling says, as evinced by the slowdown of China's economy and the fact their middle class isn't large enough to sustain growth internally.
Against that backdrop, Shilling isn't only bearish on China as an investment, he sees the potential for major social upheaval in the world's most populous nation.
Yeah... this is definitely THE bear case. I happen to be in the bear camp along with Schilling and Roubini. Be careful out there.
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/149147/S&P-600:-Thats-Gary-Shillings-Forecast-for-2009,-Not-an-Index&comment_start=21
S&P 600: That's Gary Shilling's Forecast for 2009, Not an Index
Posted Dec 19, 2008 12:33pm EST by Aaron Task in Investing, Commodities, Recession
Related: ^dji, ^gspc, FXI, TLT, EEM, UDN, SPY
The S&P 500 could fall to as low as 600 in 2009 and "alternative assets" like commodities and currencies will provide no shelter for investors, says Gary Shilling, president of A. Gary Shilling & Co.
Having been appropriately bearish heading into this year, Shilling sees "few good places to hide" in 2009. Currently, Shilling is long Treasuries and the dollar, but notes the bond market's rally is getting long in the tooth.
Other than defensive plays like utilities and consumer staples, Shilling is short stocks. His "S&P 600" prediction, a 33% drop from current levels, is based on a view that S&P earnings will be $40 per share next year (vs. the consensus of $83) and the index will trade with a P/E multiple of 15. (Here's the math: $40 EPS x 15 P/E = 600.)
Shilling is also short commodities and remains bearish on emerging markets, most notably China. The theory China, most notably, could "decouple" from the U.S. doesn't hold up to scrutiny, Shilling says, as evinced by the slowdown of China's economy and the fact their middle class isn't large enough to sustain growth internally.
Against that backdrop, Shilling isn't only bearish on China as an investment, he sees the potential for major social upheaval in the world's most populous nation.
Yeah... this is definitely THE bear case. I happen to be in the bear camp along with Schilling and Roubini. Be careful out there.
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