Showing posts with label Inflation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Inflation. Show all posts
Thursday, January 1, 2009
So its 2009....
My thoughts:
And so it begins. Quietly. Like a thief. It has all the makings of being a year that most people would like to forget when it does end. The financial crisis is getting close to the mid point mark. The gangrene though has spread into the real economy. Large masses of people are starting to get laid off - not just the bottom 10% as sales slow. Consumers and Business are deleveraging simultaneously and as they do - they are feeding what is a classic deflationary downward spiral with demand destruction in all economic activities. In such a scenario the velocity of money slows dramatically and one of the ways to combat this is to create more money and hope that the additional money will compensate for the reduced velocity. The second and surer way to combat this is by Keynsian government spending. We've now heard of a proposed 800B Stimulus package from Obama's financial team. By the time this makes it way into Congress and Senate this should be close to 900B if not 1T. This spending if done wisely (giving it to the 50 States, green infrastructure etc) will help create demand (which is being destroyed in the private sectors). Robert Shiller (of Case Shiller) has called for Obama to create full employment (or what full employment would be in a typical recession). Obama is 100% right when he pinpoints the fact that it will be JOB CREATION that will renew confidence. Right now that is the most vital commodity that we're in a sore lack of. CONFIDENCE. Without it - nothing much matters.
Speaking of confidence, restoring that in the financial markets is another ballgame completely. Ofcourse one of the first things on Tim Geithner's agenda will be Insolvency at the heart of the US Banking system. If we were to assume 2T of total losses (I have even heard 3T worldwide if you factor in credit cards, student loans, CRE etc) - then only 550B or so has been recognized. Even if I were to believe some other estimates and say 800B has been recognized - that still means there is 1.2 to 1.4 T dollars of looses that have not been recognized. Even cutting this estimate into half - we're still left with 600B - 700B of looses that need to be recognized before the end of 2009.
Folks - this means that the Fed is going to print money. It also means that the Treasury will likely have to come up to the Congress one more time for another 700B or so and this money will be solely to re-capitalize the banks (dare I say nationalize the banks?). But assuming that this happens in the early part of 2009 - and the stimulus passes - and we start creating jobs again - we should see the end to this immediate nightmare by end 2009 or early 2010. But then we will have a ton of printed money worldwide sloshing around. At that point, inflation will make a huge comeback. I wouldn't be surprised to see oil take off to the races once again along with the other commodities in 2010. The Fed as usual is likely to be behind the curve and will tighten only when it is sure that inflation has taken hold and the economy will not die. So expect some tightening of interest rates in mid 2010 (and expect inflation to run rampant here...). Eventually Volcker will be able to talk some sense into the responsible people and liquidity will be drained severely in 2011. But don't be surprised if ice-cream ends up costing you five dollars a cone before this is done and things return to "normal."
Expect to be robbed and take steps to protect yourself.
Good luck to all.
Monday, August 4, 2008
Honey, Inflation ate my rebate check
from nytimes.com
August 5, 2008
Higher Prices Outpace June Spending by Consumers
By CATHERINE RAMPELL
Consumer spending increased in June, but those gains were outpaced by rising prices, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Monday.
The increase in spending was $57.1 billion, or 0.6 percent, from May, but prices rose 0.8 percent in the month. It was the highest inflation level in the monthly report since September 2005.
The decrease in consumer spending after accounting for inflation reversed the trend in May, when stimulus checks from the federal government helped produce a real increase in spending.
“This is a kind of ‘Honey, inflation ate my rebate check’ story,” said Jared Bernstein, senior economist at the Economist Policy Institute.
Inflation was driven primarily by food and energy prices. Excluding food and energy, prices rose 0.3 percent in June, compared with 0.2 percent in May. The prices of nondurable goods — propelled mostly by food and energy, but also including things like clothing and toiletries — were up 7.3 percent year over year, the highest level since July 1981.
Markets fell this morning in response to the news before recovering in midday, largely on news of a sharp one-day decline in oil prices.
Monday’s announcement followed a tepid report last week on economic growth, which showed a mild positive annual growth rate of 1.9 percent for the second quarter in gross domestic product.
While the numbers in the spending report were not as dire as many had forecast, they still indicate months of challenges to come.
“That real consumer spending is down two-tenths in June is not a good thing in and of itself, but it also is a bad thing for what it means for third-quarter consumption,” said Michael Feroli, an economist at JPMorgan Chase. “To get positive consumption growth in the third quarter is going to be very challenging, especially with things like auto sales down as much as they are.”
The real drop in spending from May could also be due to the dwindling effects of the Economic Stimulus Act of 2008, which rolled tax rebates in consumers’ pockets starting in April. Real consumer spending had risen 0.3 percent in May, according to revised estimates. Dean Maki, chief United States economist at Barclays, said he expects that rebates will continue to pump a minor boost for several months, however.
The decreasing effect of rebates also resulted in personal income and disposable personal income numbers heading in opposite directions.
Personal income increased in June by only 0.1 percent, and disposable personal income — which is personal income less taxes — decreased 1.9 percent. Adjusted for inflation, disposable personal income decreased 2.6 percent in June.
“What you had in the way rebates got counted was, for most people, a reduction in taxes,” Mr. Feroli said. “That reduction was bigger in May than in June. Effectively, that increased taxes, and was a negative on disposable income.” The federal government issued rebate payments of $1.9 billion in April, $48.1 billion in May, and $27.9 billion in June.
Say Wha homie? Hoocoodanode?
Wednesday, July 23, 2008
Cognitive Dissonance
from bigpicture.typepad.com
Who is Right: Professionals or the Populace ?
Monday, June 30, 2008 09:00 AM
in Economy Employment Energy Psychology/Sentiment
Portfolio has an interesting discussion on what they term the "He-Said-She-Said" economy:
"Inflation, energy, home prices, and tax rebates. Ordinary Americans and Wall Street professionals are at odds on issues like these and others at the center of the current economic malaise, according to the CNBC/Portfolio Wealth in America survey. And these differences have implications for both the Federal Reserve and this year's congressional and presidential candidates.
For example, while Wall Street forecasters predict inflation will be fairly tame in the next year, at about 2.5 percent, 71 percent of the report’s respondents think prices will rise by at least 4 percent, and 50 percent expect inflation to run at or above 6 percent.
In the past month, the Federal Reserve has been trying to put a lid on inflation expectations, culminating last week with what was seen as a benign outlook for price pressures in the statement following its monetary policy meeting. Still, Americans don't seem to be hearing that message."
I heard Steve Liesman discuss this poll on CNBC. Steve, like so many other economists, is having a hard time with this conflict. Many of the dismal scientists believe in the wisdom of crowds, but they also are somewhat compelled by training to buy into the methodologies of their profession.
When the two schools of thought are directly opposite, you end up with a form of cognitive dissonance. This has accelerated as prices continued to go higher, even with relatively modest core inflation.
I have been surprised by how many reality-based economists -- including those on the left like Professor Brad DeLong and NYT columnist Paul Krugman -- were so reluctant to embrace elevated inflation as a genuine threat. There was a bit of a circle-the-wagons mentality about economics as a discipline. That seems to have faded in the face of elevated food prices and $143 Crude Oil.
Here's a suggestion: If the professional economists' data states that inflation is contained and unemployment modest, and at the same time the population sentiment is screaming as if neither were the case, perhaps its time we consider that it might be the data, and not the population, that is the source of our dispute.
Sentiment is now at levels last seen during deep ugly recessions. Perhaps the fault lies not with us American whiners -- but with the way the data is gathered, massaged and reported.
Something else to mullover: We have "enjoyed" practically full employment (i.e., very low unemployment levels) for several years now -- but wage pressure has been non-existent. That seems to be unusual to say the least.
As someone who has been skeptical about the artificially low inflation and unemployment rates for quite sometime now, the public's reaction makes a whole lot of sense. If we believe the negative sentiment of the American people, then its likely that Inflation has been much more pervasive than reported by either the top line or the core. And the same thinking likely applies to the low unemployment rate. If we judge by sentiment, perhaps its not as low as advertised. Ignoring widespread distress in the population is a recipe for major electoral changes.
Regardless of who wins in November, its time for a major rethink of the methodology behind BEA/BLS data . . .
I too have been suspect for a while now of unemployment and inflation data. For people who are interested what they are not telling you check out www.shadowstats.com
Who is Right: Professionals or the Populace ?
Monday, June 30, 2008 09:00 AM
in Economy Employment Energy Psychology/Sentiment
Portfolio has an interesting discussion on what they term the "He-Said-She-Said" economy:
"Inflation, energy, home prices, and tax rebates. Ordinary Americans and Wall Street professionals are at odds on issues like these and others at the center of the current economic malaise, according to the CNBC/Portfolio Wealth in America survey. And these differences have implications for both the Federal Reserve and this year's congressional and presidential candidates.
For example, while Wall Street forecasters predict inflation will be fairly tame in the next year, at about 2.5 percent, 71 percent of the report’s respondents think prices will rise by at least 4 percent, and 50 percent expect inflation to run at or above 6 percent.
In the past month, the Federal Reserve has been trying to put a lid on inflation expectations, culminating last week with what was seen as a benign outlook for price pressures in the statement following its monetary policy meeting. Still, Americans don't seem to be hearing that message."
I heard Steve Liesman discuss this poll on CNBC. Steve, like so many other economists, is having a hard time with this conflict. Many of the dismal scientists believe in the wisdom of crowds, but they also are somewhat compelled by training to buy into the methodologies of their profession.
When the two schools of thought are directly opposite, you end up with a form of cognitive dissonance. This has accelerated as prices continued to go higher, even with relatively modest core inflation.
I have been surprised by how many reality-based economists -- including those on the left like Professor Brad DeLong and NYT columnist Paul Krugman -- were so reluctant to embrace elevated inflation as a genuine threat. There was a bit of a circle-the-wagons mentality about economics as a discipline. That seems to have faded in the face of elevated food prices and $143 Crude Oil.
Here's a suggestion: If the professional economists' data states that inflation is contained and unemployment modest, and at the same time the population sentiment is screaming as if neither were the case, perhaps its time we consider that it might be the data, and not the population, that is the source of our dispute.
Sentiment is now at levels last seen during deep ugly recessions. Perhaps the fault lies not with us American whiners -- but with the way the data is gathered, massaged and reported.
Something else to mullover: We have "enjoyed" practically full employment (i.e., very low unemployment levels) for several years now -- but wage pressure has been non-existent. That seems to be unusual to say the least.
As someone who has been skeptical about the artificially low inflation and unemployment rates for quite sometime now, the public's reaction makes a whole lot of sense. If we believe the negative sentiment of the American people, then its likely that Inflation has been much more pervasive than reported by either the top line or the core. And the same thinking likely applies to the low unemployment rate. If we judge by sentiment, perhaps its not as low as advertised. Ignoring widespread distress in the population is a recipe for major electoral changes.
Regardless of who wins in November, its time for a major rethink of the methodology behind BEA/BLS data . . .
I too have been suspect for a while now of unemployment and inflation data. For people who are interested what they are not telling you check out www.shadowstats.com
Thursday, July 3, 2008
ECB hikes
ECB hikes key rate to 4.25%
'No bias' on future rate moves, says ECB's Trichet
By William L. Watts, MarketWatch
Last update: 11:50 a.m. EDT July 3, 2008
LONDON (MarketWatch) -- The European Central Bank returned to a wait-and-see mode on monetary policy Thursday, but only after making good on a threat to hike rates for the first time in 13 months in an effort to wrestle down surging inflation pressures.
"Starting from here, I have no bias" on interest rates, ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet told reporters at his monthly news conference following the central bank's widely-anticipated decision to hike its key lending rate by 25 basis points, or a quarter of a percentage point, to 4.25%.
'Starting from here, I have no bias.'
— Jean-Claude Trichet, ECB
Financial markets had previously factored in expectations that Thursday's move would be the first in a series of hikes. But economists said Trichet's remarks indicated that the ECB is content to see how inflationary pressures develop as it wrestles with surging prices and signs that growth across the 15-nation euro zone is headed for a significant slowdown.
Trichet, who issued a clear warning in June about the possibility of a July rate hike, used none of the phrases employed in the past to signal another move was imminent.
Key phrases
Asked about the lack of language highlighting either "heightened alertness" or "strong vigilance" on inflation pressures, Trichet would say only that the ECB's message was clear and that the governing council would strive to communicate with the markets in "a clear fashion that will allow us to be as predictable in the future as we have been in the past."
The lack of such phrases - used in the past to flag rate hikes - indicates "no further interest rate hikes are currently planned in the near term at the very least," said Howard Archer, chief U.K. and European economist at Global Insight.
Instead, the language signals that the "the ECB is back in a neutral position for now and will take into account all new information regarding the outlook for inflation and economic growth," said Juergen Michels, an economist with Citigroup, in a research note.
"We continue to expect that deteriorating economic confidence and financial market data will offset more negative inflation news in coming news months, and thus expect rates to be unchanged. However, a further rate hike in coming months is not ruled out," Michels said.
Indeed, Trichet did warn that the ECB remains worried about the potential for surging food and fuel costs to feed through to other prices, particularly through wage- and price-setting.
The ECB governing council "is monitoring price-setting behavior and wage negotiations in the euro area with particular attention," he said.
Thursday's rate hike came after Trichet repeatedly expressed fears that commodity-led inflation pressures could feed into a wage-price spiral. After June's policy meeting, Trichet said the governing council was in a state of "heightened alertness," and that a small July rate rise was possible.
Euro retreats
The euro fell sharply in the wake of Thursday's remarks after pushing above the $1.59 level against the dollar ahead of the rate move. Traders had said it would have taken a decidedly hawkish tone by Trichet to allow the euro to test its all-time high above $1.60.
The euro is 1.2% lower on the day at $1.5705. See full story.
European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet answers questions by WSJ reporter Joellen Perry on current monetary policies. (July 3)European government bonds rallied as markets scaled back expectations for further rate hikes, sending down yields, particularly at the two-year area, which is more sensitive to official rate expectations. The 10-year German government bund yield was down around eight basis points to 4.56%, while the two-year was off around 17 basis points to 4.47%.
The news also helped lift European stocks, with the pan-European Dow Jones Stoxx 600 index (ST:SXXP: news, chart, profile) erasing earlier losses to finish 0.9% higher. See full story.
The rate hike comes as the ECB and other central banks grapple with the monetary-policy dilemma posed by surging inflation pressures and a slowing economy.
In a separate move earlier Thursday, Sweden's Riksbank hiked its repo rate by a quarter point to 4.5% and indicated two more hikes are likely before the end of the year in an effort to push inflation back toward its target range.
Trichet never softened his hawkish tone ahead of Thursday's meeting despite growing evidence that the 15-nation euro-zone economy was showing signs of a potentially significant slowdown, particularly across Spain, Italy and the southern euro zone, as well as Ireland.
Earlier Thursday, the June purchasing managers index for the euro-zone service sector pointed to a contraction. The headline index fell to 49.1 from 50.6 in May, slipping from a preliminary reading of 49.5 and from April's 50.6.
The move below 50 signals that purchasing managers believe the sector, which makes up around three quarter of the euro-zone economy, saw a contraction in activity. A reading of more than 50 indicates growth.
The breakdown of data by country underscored divergence across the euro zone, with readings from Germany and France remaining above the 50 level, while Italy, Spain and Ireland remained mired below the key dividing line.
The data, along with falling manufacturing sector PMIs, declining measures of business and consumer sentiment, and other data, underline expectations the euro zone's solid first-quarter performance will slow significantly into the second half of the year.
Trichet acknowledged a weakening growth outlook for the euro area, but said the region's fundamentals remain sound.
Meanwhile, the ECB's sole mandate is to ensure price stability. And economists said a surge in annual consumer inflation to 4% in June - more than double the ECB's target rate of just below 2% -- sealed the case for Thursday's rate hike.
William L. Watts is a reporter for MarketWatch in London.
ECB signaled today that the Eurozone will be slowing soon. Trichet is expecting slowing economy to cool inflation. That has been predicted by several pundits including Nouriel Roubini who I respect greatly. I am still convinced that as long as a weak dollar policy remains in place or the Bretton II agreement is re-worked worldwide stagflation has a stronger chance than slowing inflation and growth.
'No bias' on future rate moves, says ECB's Trichet
By William L. Watts, MarketWatch
Last update: 11:50 a.m. EDT July 3, 2008
LONDON (MarketWatch) -- The European Central Bank returned to a wait-and-see mode on monetary policy Thursday, but only after making good on a threat to hike rates for the first time in 13 months in an effort to wrestle down surging inflation pressures.
"Starting from here, I have no bias" on interest rates, ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet told reporters at his monthly news conference following the central bank's widely-anticipated decision to hike its key lending rate by 25 basis points, or a quarter of a percentage point, to 4.25%.
'Starting from here, I have no bias.'
— Jean-Claude Trichet, ECB
Financial markets had previously factored in expectations that Thursday's move would be the first in a series of hikes. But economists said Trichet's remarks indicated that the ECB is content to see how inflationary pressures develop as it wrestles with surging prices and signs that growth across the 15-nation euro zone is headed for a significant slowdown.
Trichet, who issued a clear warning in June about the possibility of a July rate hike, used none of the phrases employed in the past to signal another move was imminent.
Key phrases
Asked about the lack of language highlighting either "heightened alertness" or "strong vigilance" on inflation pressures, Trichet would say only that the ECB's message was clear and that the governing council would strive to communicate with the markets in "a clear fashion that will allow us to be as predictable in the future as we have been in the past."
The lack of such phrases - used in the past to flag rate hikes - indicates "no further interest rate hikes are currently planned in the near term at the very least," said Howard Archer, chief U.K. and European economist at Global Insight.
Instead, the language signals that the "the ECB is back in a neutral position for now and will take into account all new information regarding the outlook for inflation and economic growth," said Juergen Michels, an economist with Citigroup, in a research note.
"We continue to expect that deteriorating economic confidence and financial market data will offset more negative inflation news in coming news months, and thus expect rates to be unchanged. However, a further rate hike in coming months is not ruled out," Michels said.
Indeed, Trichet did warn that the ECB remains worried about the potential for surging food and fuel costs to feed through to other prices, particularly through wage- and price-setting.
The ECB governing council "is monitoring price-setting behavior and wage negotiations in the euro area with particular attention," he said.
Thursday's rate hike came after Trichet repeatedly expressed fears that commodity-led inflation pressures could feed into a wage-price spiral. After June's policy meeting, Trichet said the governing council was in a state of "heightened alertness," and that a small July rate rise was possible.
Euro retreats
The euro fell sharply in the wake of Thursday's remarks after pushing above the $1.59 level against the dollar ahead of the rate move. Traders had said it would have taken a decidedly hawkish tone by Trichet to allow the euro to test its all-time high above $1.60.
The euro is 1.2% lower on the day at $1.5705. See full story.
European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet answers questions by WSJ reporter Joellen Perry on current monetary policies. (July 3)European government bonds rallied as markets scaled back expectations for further rate hikes, sending down yields, particularly at the two-year area, which is more sensitive to official rate expectations. The 10-year German government bund yield was down around eight basis points to 4.56%, while the two-year was off around 17 basis points to 4.47%.
The news also helped lift European stocks, with the pan-European Dow Jones Stoxx 600 index (ST:SXXP: news, chart, profile) erasing earlier losses to finish 0.9% higher. See full story.
The rate hike comes as the ECB and other central banks grapple with the monetary-policy dilemma posed by surging inflation pressures and a slowing economy.
In a separate move earlier Thursday, Sweden's Riksbank hiked its repo rate by a quarter point to 4.5% and indicated two more hikes are likely before the end of the year in an effort to push inflation back toward its target range.
Trichet never softened his hawkish tone ahead of Thursday's meeting despite growing evidence that the 15-nation euro-zone economy was showing signs of a potentially significant slowdown, particularly across Spain, Italy and the southern euro zone, as well as Ireland.
Earlier Thursday, the June purchasing managers index for the euro-zone service sector pointed to a contraction. The headline index fell to 49.1 from 50.6 in May, slipping from a preliminary reading of 49.5 and from April's 50.6.
The move below 50 signals that purchasing managers believe the sector, which makes up around three quarter of the euro-zone economy, saw a contraction in activity. A reading of more than 50 indicates growth.
The breakdown of data by country underscored divergence across the euro zone, with readings from Germany and France remaining above the 50 level, while Italy, Spain and Ireland remained mired below the key dividing line.
The data, along with falling manufacturing sector PMIs, declining measures of business and consumer sentiment, and other data, underline expectations the euro zone's solid first-quarter performance will slow significantly into the second half of the year.
Trichet acknowledged a weakening growth outlook for the euro area, but said the region's fundamentals remain sound.
Meanwhile, the ECB's sole mandate is to ensure price stability. And economists said a surge in annual consumer inflation to 4% in June - more than double the ECB's target rate of just below 2% -- sealed the case for Thursday's rate hike.
William L. Watts is a reporter for MarketWatch in London.
ECB signaled today that the Eurozone will be slowing soon. Trichet is expecting slowing economy to cool inflation. That has been predicted by several pundits including Nouriel Roubini who I respect greatly. I am still convinced that as long as a weak dollar policy remains in place or the Bretton II agreement is re-worked worldwide stagflation has a stronger chance than slowing inflation and growth.
Monday, June 30, 2008
Got Milk?
pic courtesy of nytimes.com
New Milk jugs are optimized in shape for better transportation economics. Environmentally friendly etc. The secondary effects of higher gas prices are here. The ongoing debate in the markets is if the rise in price of crude related to supply (Peak Oil) or to speculation. This current oil price shock has its genesis in several things: Bush / Cheney, 911, Saudi Arabia, OPEC, Speculation, The Federal Reserve, The US dollar, Chindia to name a few of the actors. Higher energy prices are fine with liberals as it forces a secular environmentally friendly change. And ofcourse commodities are the only area on Wall Street currently in a bull market.
New Milk jugs are optimized in shape for better transportation economics. Environmentally friendly etc. The secondary effects of higher gas prices are here. The ongoing debate in the markets is if the rise in price of crude related to supply (Peak Oil) or to speculation. This current oil price shock has its genesis in several things: Bush / Cheney, 911, Saudi Arabia, OPEC, Speculation, The Federal Reserve, The US dollar, Chindia to name a few of the actors. Higher energy prices are fine with liberals as it forces a secular environmentally friendly change. And ofcourse commodities are the only area on Wall Street currently in a bull market.
Friday, June 27, 2008
Consumer sentiment is ugly
from www.reuters.com
Consumer sentiment at lowest level since 1980
By Burton Frierson
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Consumer confidence fell more than expected in June, hitting another 28-year low as surging prices and mounting job losses contributed to a bleak outlook, according to a survey released on Friday.
The Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers said five-year inflation expectations remained steady at the peak of 3.4 percent reached in May, which was the highest in 13 years.
Federal Reserve officials have focused on long-term inflation expectations and the persistence of such pressures heightens their dilemma -- whether to fight price growth or support a weak economy in the grips of the worst housing slump since the Depression of the 1930s.
The Surveys of Consumers said the final June reading for its index of confidence fell to 56.4 from May's 59.8. The report said the pace of consumer spending is likely to sink at least through the start of 2009.
"Moreover, gas prices have risen to an all-time peak, food prices posted the largest increases in decades, home prices have fallen faster than any time since the Great Depression, and there has been widespread distress associated with foreclosures," the report added.
Also weighing on consumers, data earlier this month showed U.S. employers shed jobs for a fifth straight month in May and the unemployment rate jumped to 5.5 percent, its highest in more than 3-1/2 years.
Economists had expected a reading of 57.0, according to a Reuters poll. Their forecasts ranged from 55.9 to 60.0. The final June result is slightly below the preliminary figure of 56.7 released on June 13.
"Overall, no new information, only confirmation of prevailing weak sentiment," analysts at RBS Greenwich Capital said in a note to clients about the report.
Financial markets showed little immediate reaction to the report. Stocks were flat and the dollar was down against the yen. Government bonds were higher on the day.
The June reading is the lowest since 51.7 in May 1980, which was also the lowest reading ever. The index dates back to 1952, though the survey has been conducted since 1946.
One-year inflation expectations declined to a still-elevated 5.1 percent from May's 5.2 percent. May's one-year inflation expectations reading was the highest since 5.2 percent in February 1982.
The index of consumer expectations fell to 49.2 in June -- its lowest since May 1980. This was down from May's 51.1. Meanwhile, the index of current personal finances fell to 69 in June -- the lowest on record -- from 80 in May.
(Editing by Jonathan Oatis)
As expected, it is getting uglier - FAST. This is a consumer led recession. Expect consumer spending to drop dramatically once the short term bounce from government refund checks runs out. All consumer discretionary items are going to get hit at the median to upper consumer levels. Restaurants, Retail, Autos, Electronics, Housing (but we knew that!), Vacations, Road Trips - all of it! Once full fledged layoffs start - I expect targeted education industries to do well. I expect collection and repo agencies, bankruptcy lawyers and consultancies (on both consumer and business levels) to do booming business.
Consumer sentiment at lowest level since 1980
By Burton Frierson
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Consumer confidence fell more than expected in June, hitting another 28-year low as surging prices and mounting job losses contributed to a bleak outlook, according to a survey released on Friday.
The Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers said five-year inflation expectations remained steady at the peak of 3.4 percent reached in May, which was the highest in 13 years.
Federal Reserve officials have focused on long-term inflation expectations and the persistence of such pressures heightens their dilemma -- whether to fight price growth or support a weak economy in the grips of the worst housing slump since the Depression of the 1930s.
The Surveys of Consumers said the final June reading for its index of confidence fell to 56.4 from May's 59.8. The report said the pace of consumer spending is likely to sink at least through the start of 2009.
"Moreover, gas prices have risen to an all-time peak, food prices posted the largest increases in decades, home prices have fallen faster than any time since the Great Depression, and there has been widespread distress associated with foreclosures," the report added.
Also weighing on consumers, data earlier this month showed U.S. employers shed jobs for a fifth straight month in May and the unemployment rate jumped to 5.5 percent, its highest in more than 3-1/2 years.
Economists had expected a reading of 57.0, according to a Reuters poll. Their forecasts ranged from 55.9 to 60.0. The final June result is slightly below the preliminary figure of 56.7 released on June 13.
"Overall, no new information, only confirmation of prevailing weak sentiment," analysts at RBS Greenwich Capital said in a note to clients about the report.
Financial markets showed little immediate reaction to the report. Stocks were flat and the dollar was down against the yen. Government bonds were higher on the day.
The June reading is the lowest since 51.7 in May 1980, which was also the lowest reading ever. The index dates back to 1952, though the survey has been conducted since 1946.
One-year inflation expectations declined to a still-elevated 5.1 percent from May's 5.2 percent. May's one-year inflation expectations reading was the highest since 5.2 percent in February 1982.
The index of consumer expectations fell to 49.2 in June -- its lowest since May 1980. This was down from May's 51.1. Meanwhile, the index of current personal finances fell to 69 in June -- the lowest on record -- from 80 in May.
(Editing by Jonathan Oatis)
As expected, it is getting uglier - FAST. This is a consumer led recession. Expect consumer spending to drop dramatically once the short term bounce from government refund checks runs out. All consumer discretionary items are going to get hit at the median to upper consumer levels. Restaurants, Retail, Autos, Electronics, Housing (but we knew that!), Vacations, Road Trips - all of it! Once full fledged layoffs start - I expect targeted education industries to do well. I expect collection and repo agencies, bankruptcy lawyers and consultancies (on both consumer and business levels) to do booming business.
Thursday, June 26, 2008
Fed keeps rates at 2%
from www.federalreserve.gov
FOMC Meeting
Release Date: June 25, 2008
For immediate release
The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 2 percent.
Recent information indicates that overall economic activity continues to expand, partly reflecting some firming in household spending. However, labor markets have softened further and financial markets remain under considerable stress. Tight credit conditions, the ongoing housing contraction, and the rise in energy prices are likely to weigh on economic growth over the next few quarters.
The Committee expects inflation to moderate later this year and next year. However, in light of the continued increases in the prices of energy and some other commodities and the elevated state of some indicators of inflation expectations, uncertainty about the inflation outlook remains high.
The substantial easing of monetary policy to date, combined with ongoing measures to foster market liquidity, should help to promote moderate growth over time. Although downside risks to growth remain, they appear to have diminished somewhat, and the upside risks to inflation and inflation expectations have increased. The Committee will continue to monitor economic and financial developments and will act as needed to promote sustainable economic growth and price stability.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Frederic S. Mishkin; Sandra Pianalto; Charles I. Plosser; Gary H. Stern; and Kevin M. Warsh. Voting against was Richard W. Fisher, who preferred an increase in the target for the federal funds rate at this meeting.
Richard Fisher was right in voting for a rate increase. The rate decreases are helping banks recapitalize I suppose but are directly contributing to the bubble in commodities. The ECB on the other hand has indicated that it is likely to raise rates next month. While everyone is counting on slower consumer growth to cool inflation - I am not so sure that will play out. Stagflation has a better than 50% chance in my opinion
FOMC Meeting
Release Date: June 25, 2008
For immediate release
The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 2 percent.
Recent information indicates that overall economic activity continues to expand, partly reflecting some firming in household spending. However, labor markets have softened further and financial markets remain under considerable stress. Tight credit conditions, the ongoing housing contraction, and the rise in energy prices are likely to weigh on economic growth over the next few quarters.
The Committee expects inflation to moderate later this year and next year. However, in light of the continued increases in the prices of energy and some other commodities and the elevated state of some indicators of inflation expectations, uncertainty about the inflation outlook remains high.
The substantial easing of monetary policy to date, combined with ongoing measures to foster market liquidity, should help to promote moderate growth over time. Although downside risks to growth remain, they appear to have diminished somewhat, and the upside risks to inflation and inflation expectations have increased. The Committee will continue to monitor economic and financial developments and will act as needed to promote sustainable economic growth and price stability.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Frederic S. Mishkin; Sandra Pianalto; Charles I. Plosser; Gary H. Stern; and Kevin M. Warsh. Voting against was Richard W. Fisher, who preferred an increase in the target for the federal funds rate at this meeting.
Richard Fisher was right in voting for a rate increase. The rate decreases are helping banks recapitalize I suppose but are directly contributing to the bubble in commodities. The ECB on the other hand has indicated that it is likely to raise rates next month. While everyone is counting on slower consumer growth to cool inflation - I am not so sure that will play out. Stagflation has a better than 50% chance in my opinion
Sunday, June 22, 2008
Saudi Arabia may increase supply
from www.bloomberg.com
Saudi Arabia Boosts Oil Supply, May Pump More Later
By Ayesha Daya and Glen Carey
June 22 (Bloomberg) -- Saudi Arabia may raise its oil production beyond a planned 200,000 barrel-a-day increase in July if the oil market requires extra supply, Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi told consumers at a summit in Jeddah.
Saudi Arabia's commitment to government and business leaders to pump 9.7 million barrels a day next month came after crude rose to a record $139.89 in New York on June 16. Saudi King Abdullah said at today's summit that his country, the world's biggest oil exporter, seeks ``reasonable'' prices. OPEC President Chakib Khelil said a Saudi boost is ``illogical'' because refiners don't need more crude.
The International Energy Agency estimates that world oil use this year will climb 800,000 barrels a day, or 1 percent, as demand climbs in emerging markets. Stagnating production from Russia and the North Sea and disruption in Nigeria are also contributing to higher prices, which have touched off strikes, riots and accelerating inflation in nations around the world.
``Saudi Arabia is prepared and willing to produce additional barrels of crude above and beyond the 9.7 million barrels per day, which we plan to produce during the month of July, if demand for such quantities materializes and our customers tell us they are needed,'' Naimi said.
Saudi Arabia's capacity will be 12.5 million barrels a day by the end of 2009 and may rise to 15 million after that if necessary, he said.
Speculators Blamed
The president of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Khelil, blamed $135 oil on speculative investors, the subprime credit crisis and geopolitics, rather than a shortage of supply. Khelil, who is also Algeria's oil minister, today dismissed the argument voiced by consuming nations that possible supply shortages are driving up prices.
``The concern over future oil supply is not a new phenomenon,'' he told reporters in Jeddah. Asked if oil prices would fall after the meeting, he replied: ``I don't think so.''
More than 35 countries, seven international organizations and 25 oil companies took part in today's summit in the Saudi Red Sea port, including U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown, U.S. Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman and Exxon Mobil Corp. Chief Executive Officer Rex Tillerson.
OPEC Divided
The Saudi King and other producer-nation officials including Kuwaiti oil minister Mohammed al-Olaim also called for greater regulation on oil market investors. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission is currently investigating the role of index-fund investors in the doubling of oil prices during the past year.
OPEC itself is divided. While Saudi Arabia is boosting output, other OPEC members including Libya, Algeria, Iran, Venezuela and Qatar are opposed to higher production, saying refiners aren't asking for more crude.
Libya's top oil official, Shokri Ghanem, said after the meeting ended that the Saudi output boost wouldn't affect the oil price, and yesterday said his country may have to cut its own production in response to the Saudi move.
Venezuelan Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez, also asked whether the oil price was likely to fall after the Saudi move, said: ``I don't think so because it's not a problem of supply.''
Kuwait, OPEC's fourth largest producer, said it's ready to join neighboring Saudi Arabia and raise output, if needed.
Dollar Hedge
Oil rose to $139.89 a barrel on June 16 as investors bought commodities to hedge against a weakening U.S. dollar and concern mounted that demand is growing faster than supply. Gasoline retail prices over $4 a gallon in the U.S. are raising concern that the economy may slip into recession. Crude oil for July delivery closed June 20 in New York at $134.62 a barrel.
U.S. Energy Secretary Bodman rejected calls to put greater control on markets, and said a shortage of supply was responsible for high prices. He disputed the view that speculators are leading the markets to record levels.
The market needs between 3 million and 4 million barrels a day of spare oil production capacity, compared with the 2 million barrels a day currently available, Bodman said. OPEC says the world's spare capacity is about 3 million barrels a day, with two-thirds of that in Saudi Arabia.
``Market fundamentals show us that production has not kept pace with growing demand for oil resulting in increasing, and increasingly volatile, prices,'' Bodman said in a speech today.
More Supply
Italy's Minister of Industry Claudio Scajola and Brazil's Energy Minister Edison Lobao were among consumer-nation officials attending the Jeddah summit that said more supply was needed to ease prices. ``We expect Saudi Arabia to open the taps,'' Austrian Economy Minister Martin Bartenstein said in an interview two days ago. ``One third of inflation in the euro zone comes from energy and inflation is now of importance.''
Speaking in Jeddah today, the Austrian minister said: ``We would like to see more oil on the market. That is the only action I can think of that can discourage the speculators.''
Adam Sieminski, chief energy economist at Deutsche Bank AG, and other analysts maintain that consumers will need to curtail demand before prices head lower. The biggest drop in prices in 11 weeks came on June 18, after the world's second-biggest oil consumer, China, raised gasoline, diesel and power prices to rein in energy use.
Saudi Arabia will increase production capacity to 12.5 million barrels a day of oil by the end of next year and could add a further 2.5 million barrels a day if needed, from some new giant fields, Naimi said.
Zuluf, Shaybah Fields
``The Saudi announcement of a possible increase in capacity to 15 million barrels a day is a robust statement; it would be a huge increase,'' ENI SpA Chief Executive Officer Paolo Scaroni said in an interview in Jeddah today. ``The world is worried about the shortage in spare capacity and any improvement will change this sentiment.''
The further daily capacity includes 900,000 barrels from the Zuluf field, 700,000 barrels from Safaniyah, 300,000 barrels from Berri, 300,000 barrels from Khurais and 250,000 barrels from Shaybah, Naimi said.
U.K. Prime Minister Brown said in Jeddah today he will open Britain's energy industry to investment from oil producing nations as a way of keeping a lid on crude prices and paying for measures to clean up the environment. Further talks may be held between producers and consumers this year in London, he said.
To contact the reporters on this story: Ayesha Daya in Jeddah adaya1@bloomberg.netGlen Carey in Jeddah gcarey8@bloomberg.net Last Updated: June 22, 2008 12:12 EDT
Saudi Arabia Boosts Oil Supply, May Pump More Later
By Ayesha Daya and Glen Carey
June 22 (Bloomberg) -- Saudi Arabia may raise its oil production beyond a planned 200,000 barrel-a-day increase in July if the oil market requires extra supply, Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi told consumers at a summit in Jeddah.
Saudi Arabia's commitment to government and business leaders to pump 9.7 million barrels a day next month came after crude rose to a record $139.89 in New York on June 16. Saudi King Abdullah said at today's summit that his country, the world's biggest oil exporter, seeks ``reasonable'' prices. OPEC President Chakib Khelil said a Saudi boost is ``illogical'' because refiners don't need more crude.
The International Energy Agency estimates that world oil use this year will climb 800,000 barrels a day, or 1 percent, as demand climbs in emerging markets. Stagnating production from Russia and the North Sea and disruption in Nigeria are also contributing to higher prices, which have touched off strikes, riots and accelerating inflation in nations around the world.
``Saudi Arabia is prepared and willing to produce additional barrels of crude above and beyond the 9.7 million barrels per day, which we plan to produce during the month of July, if demand for such quantities materializes and our customers tell us they are needed,'' Naimi said.
Saudi Arabia's capacity will be 12.5 million barrels a day by the end of 2009 and may rise to 15 million after that if necessary, he said.
Speculators Blamed
The president of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Khelil, blamed $135 oil on speculative investors, the subprime credit crisis and geopolitics, rather than a shortage of supply. Khelil, who is also Algeria's oil minister, today dismissed the argument voiced by consuming nations that possible supply shortages are driving up prices.
``The concern over future oil supply is not a new phenomenon,'' he told reporters in Jeddah. Asked if oil prices would fall after the meeting, he replied: ``I don't think so.''
More than 35 countries, seven international organizations and 25 oil companies took part in today's summit in the Saudi Red Sea port, including U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown, U.S. Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman and Exxon Mobil Corp. Chief Executive Officer Rex Tillerson.
OPEC Divided
The Saudi King and other producer-nation officials including Kuwaiti oil minister Mohammed al-Olaim also called for greater regulation on oil market investors. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission is currently investigating the role of index-fund investors in the doubling of oil prices during the past year.
OPEC itself is divided. While Saudi Arabia is boosting output, other OPEC members including Libya, Algeria, Iran, Venezuela and Qatar are opposed to higher production, saying refiners aren't asking for more crude.
Libya's top oil official, Shokri Ghanem, said after the meeting ended that the Saudi output boost wouldn't affect the oil price, and yesterday said his country may have to cut its own production in response to the Saudi move.
Venezuelan Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez, also asked whether the oil price was likely to fall after the Saudi move, said: ``I don't think so because it's not a problem of supply.''
Kuwait, OPEC's fourth largest producer, said it's ready to join neighboring Saudi Arabia and raise output, if needed.
Dollar Hedge
Oil rose to $139.89 a barrel on June 16 as investors bought commodities to hedge against a weakening U.S. dollar and concern mounted that demand is growing faster than supply. Gasoline retail prices over $4 a gallon in the U.S. are raising concern that the economy may slip into recession. Crude oil for July delivery closed June 20 in New York at $134.62 a barrel.
U.S. Energy Secretary Bodman rejected calls to put greater control on markets, and said a shortage of supply was responsible for high prices. He disputed the view that speculators are leading the markets to record levels.
The market needs between 3 million and 4 million barrels a day of spare oil production capacity, compared with the 2 million barrels a day currently available, Bodman said. OPEC says the world's spare capacity is about 3 million barrels a day, with two-thirds of that in Saudi Arabia.
``Market fundamentals show us that production has not kept pace with growing demand for oil resulting in increasing, and increasingly volatile, prices,'' Bodman said in a speech today.
More Supply
Italy's Minister of Industry Claudio Scajola and Brazil's Energy Minister Edison Lobao were among consumer-nation officials attending the Jeddah summit that said more supply was needed to ease prices. ``We expect Saudi Arabia to open the taps,'' Austrian Economy Minister Martin Bartenstein said in an interview two days ago. ``One third of inflation in the euro zone comes from energy and inflation is now of importance.''
Speaking in Jeddah today, the Austrian minister said: ``We would like to see more oil on the market. That is the only action I can think of that can discourage the speculators.''
Adam Sieminski, chief energy economist at Deutsche Bank AG, and other analysts maintain that consumers will need to curtail demand before prices head lower. The biggest drop in prices in 11 weeks came on June 18, after the world's second-biggest oil consumer, China, raised gasoline, diesel and power prices to rein in energy use.
Saudi Arabia will increase production capacity to 12.5 million barrels a day of oil by the end of next year and could add a further 2.5 million barrels a day if needed, from some new giant fields, Naimi said.
Zuluf, Shaybah Fields
``The Saudi announcement of a possible increase in capacity to 15 million barrels a day is a robust statement; it would be a huge increase,'' ENI SpA Chief Executive Officer Paolo Scaroni said in an interview in Jeddah today. ``The world is worried about the shortage in spare capacity and any improvement will change this sentiment.''
The further daily capacity includes 900,000 barrels from the Zuluf field, 700,000 barrels from Safaniyah, 300,000 barrels from Berri, 300,000 barrels from Khurais and 250,000 barrels from Shaybah, Naimi said.
U.K. Prime Minister Brown said in Jeddah today he will open Britain's energy industry to investment from oil producing nations as a way of keeping a lid on crude prices and paying for measures to clean up the environment. Further talks may be held between producers and consumers this year in London, he said.
To contact the reporters on this story: Ayesha Daya in Jeddah adaya1@bloomberg.netGlen Carey in Jeddah gcarey8@bloomberg.net Last Updated: June 22, 2008 12:12 EDT
Saturday, June 21, 2008
Renting on the Rise
from www.nytimes.com
June 21, 2008
Rise in Renters Erasing Gains for Ownership
By RACHEL L. SWARNS
WASHINGTON — Driven largely by the surge in foreclosures and an unsettled housing market, Americans are renting apartments and houses at the highest level since President Bush started a campaign to expand homeownership in 2002.
The percentage of households headed by homeowners, which soared to a record 69.1 percent in 2005, fell to 67.8 percent this year, the sharpest decline in 20 years, according to census data through the end of March. By extension, the percentage of households headed by renters increased to 32.2 percent, from 30.9 percent.
The figures, while seemingly modest, reflect a significant shift in national housing trends, housing analysts say, with the notable gains in homeownership achieved under Mr. Bush all but vanishing over the last two years.
Many of the new renters, meanwhile, are struggling to get into decent apartments as vacancies decline, rents rise and other renters increasingly stay put. Some renters who want to buy homes are unable to get mortgages as banks impose stricter standards. Others remain reluctant to buy, anxious that housing prices will continue to fall.
The confluence of factors has largely derailed what Mr. Bush called “the ownership society,” his campaign to give millions of people — particularly minority and lower-income families — a shot at homeownership by encouraging lenders to finance more home purchases.
“We’re not going to see homeownership rates like that for a generation,” said Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com, a research company.
For many minority and lower-income families who viewed homeownership as a stepping stone to building wealth and passing it on to their children, the transition from owning to renting has been the unraveling of a dream. Burdened now by debt and bad credit, some of these families are worse off than they were before they bought.
“The bloom is off of homeownership,” said William C. Apgar, a senior scholar at the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University who ran the Federal Housing Administration from 1997 to 2001. “We’re seeing more dramatic growth in renters and a decline in the number of owners. People are beginning to understand that homeownership can be a very risky venture.”
Mr. Apgar said the Joint Center had predicted an increase of 1.8 million renters from 2005 to 2015, given expected population trends. Instead, they saw a surge of 1.5 million renters from 2005 to 2007 alone. In the first quarter of this year, 35.7 million people were renting homes or apartments, census data show.
“Even though we’re only looking at a short period, these trends are pretty powerful,” Mr. Apgar said.
Mr. Zandi said he believed that minority and lower-income homeowners had been hardest hit. Nearly three million minority families took out mortgages from 2002 to the first quarter of this year, housing officials say. Since minority families were more likely to receive subprime loans, economists believe these families account for a disproportionate share of foreclosures.
Tony Fratto, a White House spokesman, said that officials had hoped the homeownership gains would stick. “We’re disappointed that conditions in the housing market didn’t allow those gains to be sustained,” he said. “But we’re optimistic that they can return.”
The new renters include people like Tina Williams, a 43-year-old medical assistant who lost her three-bedroom colonial in Cleveland to foreclosure in March after her adjustable rate mortgage spiked and she struggled to find work.
Ms. Williams slept at a homeless shelter and at the homes of friends after five apartment complexes rejected her, citing her bad credit and history of foreclosure.
Finally, someone offered to rent her the third floor of their house. Her new $300-a-month rental has a bedroom, a living room and a bathroom, but no kitchen.
“People say, ‘Tina, how are you living?’ ” said Ms. Williams, who has cobbled together the semblance of a kitchen with a microwave, a minirefrigerator and an electric frying pan.
“I say, ‘I’m living on God’s grace and mercy,’ ” said Ms. Williams, who had dreamed of passing on her first home, bought in 2001, to her two grown daughters.
“My daughter says I’m living in a hole in the wall,” she said. “But I can eat every day. I have a roof over my head. When I found this place, I started shouting for joy.”
Nationally, rents have increased about 11 percent since 2005, when homeownership rates started to decline, though that growth is slowing, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In 2005, vacancy rates for rental properties in Cleveland hovered around 10 percent, according to the Northeast Ohio Apartment Association, which represents landlords in the Cleveland area. Today, the rate stands at 5.2 percent.
Christopher E. Smythe, the association’s president, said the collapse of the housing market had improved the economic climate.
“Our apartment traffic is up, people are renting again and occupancies are up,” he said in a letter to members this year.
In other places, like Los Angeles, the slump in the housing market has begun to push up vacancies as condominiums are converted into rentals, according to Raphael Bostic, the associate director at the Lusk Center for Real Estate at the University of Southern California.
But those new apartments are often out of reach of struggling families. And since many owners of rental properties are also going into default, the foreclosure wave has resulted in fierce competition for affordable apartments in some cities.
In Rhode Island, 41 percent of the state’s foreclosed properties are multifamily dwellings, which would most likely have housed tenants, a recent study by the National Low Income Housing Coalition concluded.
“We’re seeing the displacement of tenants at the same time that we’re seeing former homeowners enter the rental market,” said Raymond Neirinckx, a coordinator at the Rhode Island Housing Resources Commission, which handles housing policy.
Meanwhile, some people who have lost their homes find that landlords view them with suspicion.
Steve Allen, 51, a Vietnam veteran in Seattle, was repeatedly rejected when he and his wife, Lesa, started searching for an apartment this month. Some apartment managers said no because they had lost their home to foreclosure. Others said their credit scores were too low.
Debbie Suber, 46, who lost her home in Cleveland last year, said she and her husband were lucky to find a landlord who was willing to consider their income, not their credit scores. “By the grace of God, that’s why I have a place,” she said.
Times are also tough for renters hoping to buy. Banks have tightened mortgage standards, insisting on good credit scores, proof of income and sizable down payments. Lez Trujillo, the national field director for Acorn Housing, a nonprofit group that helps lower-income families get mortgages, said a third of their applicants ended up with houses just a few years ago. Now, it is one in 10, she said.
Barbara O’Leary-Hatfield-Liberace, a 68-year-old retiree and an Acorn member, encountered such difficulties when she and some friends decided to buy a $340,000 house in Seattle.
The mortgage company they consulted said they needed to clean up their credit and come up with a $45,000 down payment, money they do not have.
So on most nights, when Ms. O’Leary-Hatfield-Liberace thinks about her dream house, she reaches for the rosary that she keeps under her pillow.
“I pray a lot and hope to heck we’ll win the Lotto,” she said.
Good luck with that lotto. During the recent boom in house prices credit standards were dramatically loosened. Mortgages once upon a time were given by neighborhood banks to people living in the neighborhood who were well known to the bankers. Globalization and securitization of credit ended this phenomenon and led to an unbelievable boom in mortgage availability to people with little or no credit history. Mortgages were given to people with no jobs and no source of active or passive income. Pick your monthly mortgage schemes were available to low FICO individuals. Well, the rooster has come home. Home prices are out of tune with historical rents. So either rents have to go up (by increasing demand for rent such as this article) or home prices have to come down (as we're currently witnessing in the Case Schiller index) or a combination of both. Inflation will also help and so will the falling dollar. Rising inflation means that home prices dont have to fall all that much! Ask yourself this question. You think your home price has doubled or tripled in the last 7 years? Is that in dollar terms or gold terms or in Euros? Gold (if you believe this to be the true holder of monetary value has quadrupled during this time). In gold terms, your home price has actually fallen. Expect credit availability to shrink (as bankers relearn the business of mortgages), rents to increase and home prices to fall in the next 3 years. Sometime soon, it will again become cash flow positive to buy a condo with 20% down and rent it out. Till then, the pain continues.
June 21, 2008
Rise in Renters Erasing Gains for Ownership
By RACHEL L. SWARNS
WASHINGTON — Driven largely by the surge in foreclosures and an unsettled housing market, Americans are renting apartments and houses at the highest level since President Bush started a campaign to expand homeownership in 2002.
The percentage of households headed by homeowners, which soared to a record 69.1 percent in 2005, fell to 67.8 percent this year, the sharpest decline in 20 years, according to census data through the end of March. By extension, the percentage of households headed by renters increased to 32.2 percent, from 30.9 percent.
The figures, while seemingly modest, reflect a significant shift in national housing trends, housing analysts say, with the notable gains in homeownership achieved under Mr. Bush all but vanishing over the last two years.
Many of the new renters, meanwhile, are struggling to get into decent apartments as vacancies decline, rents rise and other renters increasingly stay put. Some renters who want to buy homes are unable to get mortgages as banks impose stricter standards. Others remain reluctant to buy, anxious that housing prices will continue to fall.
The confluence of factors has largely derailed what Mr. Bush called “the ownership society,” his campaign to give millions of people — particularly minority and lower-income families — a shot at homeownership by encouraging lenders to finance more home purchases.
“We’re not going to see homeownership rates like that for a generation,” said Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com, a research company.
For many minority and lower-income families who viewed homeownership as a stepping stone to building wealth and passing it on to their children, the transition from owning to renting has been the unraveling of a dream. Burdened now by debt and bad credit, some of these families are worse off than they were before they bought.
“The bloom is off of homeownership,” said William C. Apgar, a senior scholar at the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University who ran the Federal Housing Administration from 1997 to 2001. “We’re seeing more dramatic growth in renters and a decline in the number of owners. People are beginning to understand that homeownership can be a very risky venture.”
Mr. Apgar said the Joint Center had predicted an increase of 1.8 million renters from 2005 to 2015, given expected population trends. Instead, they saw a surge of 1.5 million renters from 2005 to 2007 alone. In the first quarter of this year, 35.7 million people were renting homes or apartments, census data show.
“Even though we’re only looking at a short period, these trends are pretty powerful,” Mr. Apgar said.
Mr. Zandi said he believed that minority and lower-income homeowners had been hardest hit. Nearly three million minority families took out mortgages from 2002 to the first quarter of this year, housing officials say. Since minority families were more likely to receive subprime loans, economists believe these families account for a disproportionate share of foreclosures.
Tony Fratto, a White House spokesman, said that officials had hoped the homeownership gains would stick. “We’re disappointed that conditions in the housing market didn’t allow those gains to be sustained,” he said. “But we’re optimistic that they can return.”
The new renters include people like Tina Williams, a 43-year-old medical assistant who lost her three-bedroom colonial in Cleveland to foreclosure in March after her adjustable rate mortgage spiked and she struggled to find work.
Ms. Williams slept at a homeless shelter and at the homes of friends after five apartment complexes rejected her, citing her bad credit and history of foreclosure.
Finally, someone offered to rent her the third floor of their house. Her new $300-a-month rental has a bedroom, a living room and a bathroom, but no kitchen.
“People say, ‘Tina, how are you living?’ ” said Ms. Williams, who has cobbled together the semblance of a kitchen with a microwave, a minirefrigerator and an electric frying pan.
“I say, ‘I’m living on God’s grace and mercy,’ ” said Ms. Williams, who had dreamed of passing on her first home, bought in 2001, to her two grown daughters.
“My daughter says I’m living in a hole in the wall,” she said. “But I can eat every day. I have a roof over my head. When I found this place, I started shouting for joy.”
Nationally, rents have increased about 11 percent since 2005, when homeownership rates started to decline, though that growth is slowing, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In 2005, vacancy rates for rental properties in Cleveland hovered around 10 percent, according to the Northeast Ohio Apartment Association, which represents landlords in the Cleveland area. Today, the rate stands at 5.2 percent.
Christopher E. Smythe, the association’s president, said the collapse of the housing market had improved the economic climate.
“Our apartment traffic is up, people are renting again and occupancies are up,” he said in a letter to members this year.
In other places, like Los Angeles, the slump in the housing market has begun to push up vacancies as condominiums are converted into rentals, according to Raphael Bostic, the associate director at the Lusk Center for Real Estate at the University of Southern California.
But those new apartments are often out of reach of struggling families. And since many owners of rental properties are also going into default, the foreclosure wave has resulted in fierce competition for affordable apartments in some cities.
In Rhode Island, 41 percent of the state’s foreclosed properties are multifamily dwellings, which would most likely have housed tenants, a recent study by the National Low Income Housing Coalition concluded.
“We’re seeing the displacement of tenants at the same time that we’re seeing former homeowners enter the rental market,” said Raymond Neirinckx, a coordinator at the Rhode Island Housing Resources Commission, which handles housing policy.
Meanwhile, some people who have lost their homes find that landlords view them with suspicion.
Steve Allen, 51, a Vietnam veteran in Seattle, was repeatedly rejected when he and his wife, Lesa, started searching for an apartment this month. Some apartment managers said no because they had lost their home to foreclosure. Others said their credit scores were too low.
Debbie Suber, 46, who lost her home in Cleveland last year, said she and her husband were lucky to find a landlord who was willing to consider their income, not their credit scores. “By the grace of God, that’s why I have a place,” she said.
Times are also tough for renters hoping to buy. Banks have tightened mortgage standards, insisting on good credit scores, proof of income and sizable down payments. Lez Trujillo, the national field director for Acorn Housing, a nonprofit group that helps lower-income families get mortgages, said a third of their applicants ended up with houses just a few years ago. Now, it is one in 10, she said.
Barbara O’Leary-Hatfield-Liberace, a 68-year-old retiree and an Acorn member, encountered such difficulties when she and some friends decided to buy a $340,000 house in Seattle.
The mortgage company they consulted said they needed to clean up their credit and come up with a $45,000 down payment, money they do not have.
So on most nights, when Ms. O’Leary-Hatfield-Liberace thinks about her dream house, she reaches for the rosary that she keeps under her pillow.
“I pray a lot and hope to heck we’ll win the Lotto,” she said.
Good luck with that lotto. During the recent boom in house prices credit standards were dramatically loosened. Mortgages once upon a time were given by neighborhood banks to people living in the neighborhood who were well known to the bankers. Globalization and securitization of credit ended this phenomenon and led to an unbelievable boom in mortgage availability to people with little or no credit history. Mortgages were given to people with no jobs and no source of active or passive income. Pick your monthly mortgage schemes were available to low FICO individuals. Well, the rooster has come home. Home prices are out of tune with historical rents. So either rents have to go up (by increasing demand for rent such as this article) or home prices have to come down (as we're currently witnessing in the Case Schiller index) or a combination of both. Inflation will also help and so will the falling dollar. Rising inflation means that home prices dont have to fall all that much! Ask yourself this question. You think your home price has doubled or tripled in the last 7 years? Is that in dollar terms or gold terms or in Euros? Gold (if you believe this to be the true holder of monetary value has quadrupled during this time). In gold terms, your home price has actually fallen. Expect credit availability to shrink (as bankers relearn the business of mortgages), rents to increase and home prices to fall in the next 3 years. Sometime soon, it will again become cash flow positive to buy a condo with 20% down and rent it out. Till then, the pain continues.
Friday, June 13, 2008
Prices Higher - Food and Energy
from www.nytimes.com
June 14, 2008
Oil and Food Push Consumer Prices Higher in May
By MICHAEL M. GRYNBAUM
Inflation hit hard in May as prices for a wide swath of consumer goods rose at their fastest pace in six months, underscoring warnings from central bankers and adding to a growing consensus that the Federal Reserve might raise interest rates by the end of the year.
The Consumer Price Index, which measures prices of a batch of common household products, rose 0.6 percent last month, as Americans were forced to cope with a sharp increase in fuel costs. The report, released Friday by the Labor Department, is considered a benchmark measure of inflation.
On Wall Street, the major stock indexes rose after the report, with the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index up 0.76 percent in afternoon trading. The Dow Jones industrials, which had gained more than 140 points, in morning trading was up about 80 points.
The index, which rose more than economists had forecast, comes on the heels of repeated warnings about inflation from the world’s central banks. Ben S. Bernanke, the chairman of the Fed, joined other top officials this week in focusing on higher prices, citing the economic damage wrought by the record run-up in food and oil prices around the world.
The speeches have fueled a growing sense on Wall Street that the Fed has shifted its focus from supporting growth to fighting inflation. The May C.P.I. will probably heighten expectations that higher interest rates, which tend to hold down prices, may be in the offing.
In May, gasoline prices rose 5.2 percent, and were up 21 percent compared with a year ago, according to the report. They may rise again in June: the nationwide average for gasoline topped $4 a gallon last weekend as the price of oil leaped to a new high.
The cost of eating rose, as well, as Americans paid 5 percent more for foods and beverages in May than a year ago.
On an annual basis, inflation worsened for the first time in three months, reversing a downward trend. Inflation ran at 4.2 percent in May compared with a year ago.
High oil prices also pushed up costs for other products, as businesses, squeezed by higher shipping and production costs, sought to raise the prices paid by their customers. Prices for transportation, commodities, tobacco and utility fuels all increased for the month. Excluding the cost of food and gasoline, inflation ran at 0.2 percent for the month.
“Both consumers and financial market participants are becoming sensitized to large headline price rises, and were especially ready this month amid heightened inflation anxiety,” Peter Kretzmer, an economist at Bank of America, wrote in a note.
Consumers, however, do not appear content with rising prices. A measure of Americans’ confidence in the economy fell to its lowest level since 1980, another period of high inflation and slow growth. The University of Michigan’s consumer confidence survey dropped to 56.7 in June, the fifth consecutive month of decline.
June 14, 2008
Oil and Food Push Consumer Prices Higher in May
By MICHAEL M. GRYNBAUM
Inflation hit hard in May as prices for a wide swath of consumer goods rose at their fastest pace in six months, underscoring warnings from central bankers and adding to a growing consensus that the Federal Reserve might raise interest rates by the end of the year.
The Consumer Price Index, which measures prices of a batch of common household products, rose 0.6 percent last month, as Americans were forced to cope with a sharp increase in fuel costs. The report, released Friday by the Labor Department, is considered a benchmark measure of inflation.
On Wall Street, the major stock indexes rose after the report, with the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index up 0.76 percent in afternoon trading. The Dow Jones industrials, which had gained more than 140 points, in morning trading was up about 80 points.
The index, which rose more than economists had forecast, comes on the heels of repeated warnings about inflation from the world’s central banks. Ben S. Bernanke, the chairman of the Fed, joined other top officials this week in focusing on higher prices, citing the economic damage wrought by the record run-up in food and oil prices around the world.
The speeches have fueled a growing sense on Wall Street that the Fed has shifted its focus from supporting growth to fighting inflation. The May C.P.I. will probably heighten expectations that higher interest rates, which tend to hold down prices, may be in the offing.
In May, gasoline prices rose 5.2 percent, and were up 21 percent compared with a year ago, according to the report. They may rise again in June: the nationwide average for gasoline topped $4 a gallon last weekend as the price of oil leaped to a new high.
The cost of eating rose, as well, as Americans paid 5 percent more for foods and beverages in May than a year ago.
On an annual basis, inflation worsened for the first time in three months, reversing a downward trend. Inflation ran at 4.2 percent in May compared with a year ago.
High oil prices also pushed up costs for other products, as businesses, squeezed by higher shipping and production costs, sought to raise the prices paid by their customers. Prices for transportation, commodities, tobacco and utility fuels all increased for the month. Excluding the cost of food and gasoline, inflation ran at 0.2 percent for the month.
“Both consumers and financial market participants are becoming sensitized to large headline price rises, and were especially ready this month amid heightened inflation anxiety,” Peter Kretzmer, an economist at Bank of America, wrote in a note.
Consumers, however, do not appear content with rising prices. A measure of Americans’ confidence in the economy fell to its lowest level since 1980, another period of high inflation and slow growth. The University of Michigan’s consumer confidence survey dropped to 56.7 in June, the fifth consecutive month of decline.
Tuesday, June 10, 2008
Inflation expectations in the limelight
from www.nytimes.com
June 11, 2008
Inflation Worries Unsettle Global Markets
By MATTHEW SALTMARSH and KEITH BRADSHER
PARIS — Fears of rising interest rates in Europe and the United States and their effect on already faltering consumption dragged share prices lower in Europe on Tuesday after a sell-off in Asia.
In afternoon trading, the main European indexes had pared earlier losses of over 1 percent but remained lower, taking their cue from Asia.
Stock-index futures in New York also dropped amid mounting concern that the Federal Reserve will raise borrowing costs to fight inflation.
Chinese stocks fell 8.1 percent on Tuesday, their biggest single-day drop in nearly 16 months, leading a downturn in Asian stock markets.
The plunge in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets followed an increase in Chinese bank reserve requirements, heightened worries about food and oil prices, and fears about exports to the United States.
Comments late Monday from the chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben S. Bernanke, who said that threats to the American economy had diminished and that the central bank would “strongly resist” inflation pressure, added to the sense in the market that rates in the United States have hit a low point in this cycle.
The remarks, coupled with a signal last week from the president of the Europe Central Bank, Jean-Claude Trichet, that borrowing costs in the euro zone could rise as soon as next month, have led to fears that consumer activity will weaken further.
“The mood has changed quite dramatically in the last two or three weeks,” said Roger Cursley, equity strategist at Investec, a banking group in London. “Central banks are focusing on inflation, and seemingly they have put worries about the effects of the credit crisis behind them.”
The expectation of higher rates, just as consumers struggle to adapt to higher oil and food prices, has led to a raft of downward revisions to growth estimates in the West from institutions like the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. The OECD said last week that growth among its members would slow to 1.8 percent this year and 1.7 percent next year, compared with its previous forecast of 2.3 percent in 2008 and 2.4 percent in 2009.
That in turn is lowering the expectation among analysts for earnings growth, particularly among banks, retailers, homebuilders and leisure stocks. Those stocks with more exposure to emerging markets, particularly food and tobacco stocks, and those that benefit from rising prices, like utilities, appear less vulnerable to the downturn.
In London, the FTSE 100 was down 0.6 percent to 3,576.11 points in early afternoon trading. The CAC-40 was down by the same amount at 4,769.76 in Paris and the broader Stoxx 600 also shed 0.6 percent, to 306.99. In Frankurt, the DAX was off 0.8 percent to 6,760,29.
Among individual stocks, ABB, the world’s largest builder of power networks, lost 2.3 percent to 31.56 Swiss francs. Tesco, the giant British retailer, dropped 3.2 percent to 389.1 pence after higher food and energy prices curbed its revenue.
Among American stocks traded in Europe, Bank of America sank 24 cents to $29.37 in Germany. Texas Instruments fell 57 cents to $30.76 in Germany after predicting second-quarter sales that met analysts’ forecasts.
In Asia, Industrial and Commercial Bank, the largest Chinese lender, slumped 8.4 percent to 5.38 yuan. Shanghai Pudong Development Bank dropped 10 percent to 25.75 yuan.
Elsewhere in the region, the Hong Kong stock market fell 4.1 percent; the Nikkei stock market index in Tokyo dipped 1.1 percent; the South Korean market declined 2.1 percent; the Taiwanese market was down 2.5 percent and the Australian stock market fell 2.8 percent.
Stock markets in mainland China and Hong Kong had been closed on Monday as a continuation of the Dragon Boat Festival on Sunday.
Economists attributed the steepness of the Chinese market’s plunge to broader worries among investors about how far the Chinese government will go to slow the economy to prevent food and oil prices from triggering a broader rise in inflation.
Chinese markets have lost 45 percent of their value since setting a record in October during a period of feverish speculation when many small investors began buying stocks for the first time.
The People’s Bank of China, the country’s central bank, announced on Saturday that it would raise the proportion of assets that banks must hold as reserves by a full percentage point, in two equal steps on June 15 and June 25. The increase — the fifth this year — tightens monetary policy by leaving banks with less money to lend.
“People can’t see the end of inflation,” said Stephen Green, the head of China research in the Shanghai office of Standard Chartered. “People are worried about the government having to continue to tighten.”
China is scheduled to announce on Thursday its statistics for consumer price inflation in May. During trading hours on Tuesday, news wire services cited unidentified Chinese officials as saying that the inflation rate was 7.7 percent; that would represent a decline from 8.5 percent in April, but would still be well above the rate of 5 percent that Chinese officials have described as the maximum they can tolerate.
Officials at the National Bureau of Statistics in Beijing could not be reached on Tuesday evening for comment.
China depends fairly heavily on exports, which have already slowed along with growth in the American economy.
Weaker growth in the United States could further reduce demand for the Chinese electronics, clothing and other products that already crowd the shelves of American stores.
China’s current account — the broadest measure of trade in goods and services as well as remittances and overseas investment returns — reached 11.3 percent of its entire economic output last year. Together with massive currency market intervention to slow the rise of the Chinese currency against the dollar, the current account surplus was a central reason why Chinese foreign exchange reserves grew by a record $462 billion last year.
Keith Bradsher reported from Hong Kong and Matthew Saltmarsh from Paris.
June 11, 2008
Inflation Worries Unsettle Global Markets
By MATTHEW SALTMARSH and KEITH BRADSHER
PARIS — Fears of rising interest rates in Europe and the United States and their effect on already faltering consumption dragged share prices lower in Europe on Tuesday after a sell-off in Asia.
In afternoon trading, the main European indexes had pared earlier losses of over 1 percent but remained lower, taking their cue from Asia.
Stock-index futures in New York also dropped amid mounting concern that the Federal Reserve will raise borrowing costs to fight inflation.
Chinese stocks fell 8.1 percent on Tuesday, their biggest single-day drop in nearly 16 months, leading a downturn in Asian stock markets.
The plunge in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets followed an increase in Chinese bank reserve requirements, heightened worries about food and oil prices, and fears about exports to the United States.
Comments late Monday from the chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben S. Bernanke, who said that threats to the American economy had diminished and that the central bank would “strongly resist” inflation pressure, added to the sense in the market that rates in the United States have hit a low point in this cycle.
The remarks, coupled with a signal last week from the president of the Europe Central Bank, Jean-Claude Trichet, that borrowing costs in the euro zone could rise as soon as next month, have led to fears that consumer activity will weaken further.
“The mood has changed quite dramatically in the last two or three weeks,” said Roger Cursley, equity strategist at Investec, a banking group in London. “Central banks are focusing on inflation, and seemingly they have put worries about the effects of the credit crisis behind them.”
The expectation of higher rates, just as consumers struggle to adapt to higher oil and food prices, has led to a raft of downward revisions to growth estimates in the West from institutions like the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. The OECD said last week that growth among its members would slow to 1.8 percent this year and 1.7 percent next year, compared with its previous forecast of 2.3 percent in 2008 and 2.4 percent in 2009.
That in turn is lowering the expectation among analysts for earnings growth, particularly among banks, retailers, homebuilders and leisure stocks. Those stocks with more exposure to emerging markets, particularly food and tobacco stocks, and those that benefit from rising prices, like utilities, appear less vulnerable to the downturn.
In London, the FTSE 100 was down 0.6 percent to 3,576.11 points in early afternoon trading. The CAC-40 was down by the same amount at 4,769.76 in Paris and the broader Stoxx 600 also shed 0.6 percent, to 306.99. In Frankurt, the DAX was off 0.8 percent to 6,760,29.
Among individual stocks, ABB, the world’s largest builder of power networks, lost 2.3 percent to 31.56 Swiss francs. Tesco, the giant British retailer, dropped 3.2 percent to 389.1 pence after higher food and energy prices curbed its revenue.
Among American stocks traded in Europe, Bank of America sank 24 cents to $29.37 in Germany. Texas Instruments fell 57 cents to $30.76 in Germany after predicting second-quarter sales that met analysts’ forecasts.
In Asia, Industrial and Commercial Bank, the largest Chinese lender, slumped 8.4 percent to 5.38 yuan. Shanghai Pudong Development Bank dropped 10 percent to 25.75 yuan.
Elsewhere in the region, the Hong Kong stock market fell 4.1 percent; the Nikkei stock market index in Tokyo dipped 1.1 percent; the South Korean market declined 2.1 percent; the Taiwanese market was down 2.5 percent and the Australian stock market fell 2.8 percent.
Stock markets in mainland China and Hong Kong had been closed on Monday as a continuation of the Dragon Boat Festival on Sunday.
Economists attributed the steepness of the Chinese market’s plunge to broader worries among investors about how far the Chinese government will go to slow the economy to prevent food and oil prices from triggering a broader rise in inflation.
Chinese markets have lost 45 percent of their value since setting a record in October during a period of feverish speculation when many small investors began buying stocks for the first time.
The People’s Bank of China, the country’s central bank, announced on Saturday that it would raise the proportion of assets that banks must hold as reserves by a full percentage point, in two equal steps on June 15 and June 25. The increase — the fifth this year — tightens monetary policy by leaving banks with less money to lend.
“People can’t see the end of inflation,” said Stephen Green, the head of China research in the Shanghai office of Standard Chartered. “People are worried about the government having to continue to tighten.”
China is scheduled to announce on Thursday its statistics for consumer price inflation in May. During trading hours on Tuesday, news wire services cited unidentified Chinese officials as saying that the inflation rate was 7.7 percent; that would represent a decline from 8.5 percent in April, but would still be well above the rate of 5 percent that Chinese officials have described as the maximum they can tolerate.
Officials at the National Bureau of Statistics in Beijing could not be reached on Tuesday evening for comment.
China depends fairly heavily on exports, which have already slowed along with growth in the American economy.
Weaker growth in the United States could further reduce demand for the Chinese electronics, clothing and other products that already crowd the shelves of American stores.
China’s current account — the broadest measure of trade in goods and services as well as remittances and overseas investment returns — reached 11.3 percent of its entire economic output last year. Together with massive currency market intervention to slow the rise of the Chinese currency against the dollar, the current account surplus was a central reason why Chinese foreign exchange reserves grew by a record $462 billion last year.
Keith Bradsher reported from Hong Kong and Matthew Saltmarsh from Paris.
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