Here's Jason in Sweden
This song is my pick in the best song category at the 51st Grammys. The nominations are:
Song Of The Year
(A Songwriter(s) Award. A song is eligible if it was first released or if it first achieved prominence during the Eligibility Year. (Artist names appear in parentheses.) Singles or Tracks only.)
American Boy
William Adams, Keith Harris, Josh Lopez, Caleb Speir, John Stephens, Estelle Swaray & Kanye West, songwriters (Estelle Featuring Kanye West)
Track from: Shine
[Atlantic/Homeschool; Publishers: Will.I.Am Music/Cherry River Music/Chrysalis Publishing/John Legend Publishing/Cherry River Music/Please Gimme My Publishing/EMI Blackwood Music/Larry Leron Music/Speir Music/Broke, Spoke and Gone Publishing]
Chasing Pavements
Adele Adkins & Eg White, songwriters (Adele)
Track from: 19
[XL Recordings/Columbia; Publishers: Universal-Songs of Polygram Int.]
I'm Yours
Jason Mraz, songwriter (Jason Mraz)
Track from: We Sing. We Dance. We Steal Things.
[Atlantic; Publisher: Goo Eyed Music]
Love Song
Sara Bareilles, songwriter (Sara Bareilles)
Track from: Little Voice
[Epic; Publisher: Tiny Bear Music]
Viva La Vida
Guy Berryman, Jonny Buckland, Will Champion & Chris Martin, songwriters (Coldplay)
Track from: Viva La Vida Or Death And All His Friends
[Capitol Records; Publishers: Universal Music-MGB Songs]
Here are the lyrics (and they're amazing).
Well you done done me and you bet I felt it
I tried to be chill but you're so hot that I melted
I fell right through the cracks, now I'm trying to get back
Before the cool done run out, I'll be giving it my bestest
And nothing's going to stop me but divine intervention
I reckon it's again my turn to win some or learn some
But I won't hesitate no more, no more
It cannot wait, I'm yours
Well open up your mind and see like me
Open up your plans and damn you're free
Look into your heart and you'll find love love love love
Listen to the music of the moment people, dance and sing
We're just one big family
And it's our God-forsaken right to be loved loved loved loved loved
So I won't hesitate no more, no more
It cannot wait, I'm sure
There's no need to complicate, our time is short
This is our fate, I'm yours
D-d-do do you, but do you, d-d-do
But do you want to come on
Scooch on over closer dear
And I will nibble your ear
I've been spending way too long checking my tongue in the mirror
And bending over backwards just to try to see it clearer
But my breath fogged up the glass
And so I drew a new face and I laughed
I guess what I be saying is there ain't no better reason
To rid yourself of vanities and just go with the seasons
It's what we aim to do, our name is our virtue
But I won't hesitate no more, no more
It cannot wait, I'm yours
Come on and open up your mind and see like me
(I won't hesitate)
Open up your plans and damn you're free
(No more, no more)
Look into your heart and you'll find that the sky is yours
(It cannot wait, I'm sure)
So please don't, there's no need
(There's no need to complicate)
There's no need to complicate
(Our time is short)
'Cause our time is short
(This is our fate)
This is, this is, this is our fate
I'm yours
Oh, I'm yours
Oh, I'm yours
Oh, whoa, baby you believe I'm yours
You best believe, best believe I'm yours
Monday, January 12, 2009
Friday, January 9, 2009
Calculated Risk on Employment Numbers and Part time Employed
Employment Declines Sharply, Unemployment Rises to 7.2 Percent
Click on graph for larger image.
This graph shows the unemployment rate and the year over year change in employment vs. recessions.
Nonfarm payrolls decreased by 524,00 in December, and November payrolls were revised down to a loss of 584,000 jobs. The economy has lost over 1.5 million jobs over the last 3 months alone!
The unemployment rate rose to 7.2 percent; the highest level since January 1993.
Year over year employment is now strongly negative (there were 2.6 million fewer Americans employed in Dec 2008 than in Dec 2007). This is another extremely weak employment report ...
Click on graph for larger image.
Not only has the unemployment rate risen sharply to 7.2%, but the number of workers only able to find part time jobs (or have had their hours cut for economic reasons) is now over 8 million.
Of course the U.S. population is significantly larger today (about 305 million) than in the early '80s (about 228 million) when the number of part time workers almost reached 7 million, but the rapid increase in part time workers is pretty stunning.
by CalculatedRisk on 1/09/2009 08:30:00 AM
From the BLS:
Nonfarm payroll employment declined sharply in December, and the unemployment rate rose from 6.8 to 7.2 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Payroll employment fell by 524,000 over the month and by 1.9 million over the last 4 months of 2008. In December, job losses were large and widespread across most major industry sectors.
Click on graph for larger image.This graph shows the unemployment rate and the year over year change in employment vs. recessions.
Nonfarm payrolls decreased by 524,00 in December, and November payrolls were revised down to a loss of 584,000 jobs. The economy has lost over 1.5 million jobs over the last 3 months alone!
The unemployment rate rose to 7.2 percent; the highest level since January 1993.
Year over year employment is now strongly negative (there were 2.6 million fewer Americans employed in Dec 2008 than in Dec 2007). This is another extremely weak employment report ...
Over 8 Million Part Time Workers
by CalculatedRisk on 1/09/2009 09:01:00 AM
From the BLS report:
In December, the number of persons who worked part time for economic reasons (some-times referred to as involuntary part-time workers) continued to increase, reaching 8.0 million. The number of such workers rose by 3.4 million over the past 12 months. This category includes persons who would like to work full time but were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find full-time jobs.
Click on graph for larger image.Not only has the unemployment rate risen sharply to 7.2%, but the number of workers only able to find part time jobs (or have had their hours cut for economic reasons) is now over 8 million.
Of course the U.S. population is significantly larger today (about 305 million) than in the early '80s (about 228 million) when the number of part time workers almost reached 7 million, but the rapid increase in part time workers is pretty stunning.
Calculated Risk: On Roubini's 2 yr recession
Thursday, January 08, 2009
Roubini: Two Year Recession
by CalculatedRisk on 1/08/2009 04:30:00 PM
From Rex Nutting at MarketWatch: Roubini forecasts recession will last 2 years
The U.S. recession will last two full years, with gross domestic product falling a cumulative 5%, said Nouriel Roubini, ... For 2009, Roubini predicts GDP will fall 3.4%, with declines in every quarter of the year. The unemployment rate should peak at about 9% in early 2010 ...
Roubini is forecasting a pretty serious recession, but far short of a "depression" which is usually defined as a 10% decline in real GDP.
The concensus (and the Fed forecast) is that the economy will bottom in Q2 2009 with a sluggish recovery in the 2nd half of this year.
The recession started officially around Dec 06 - Jan 07. Roubini is prediciting that the recession will last through Jan ' 09 ish. This is exactly my prediction as well (read earlier posts) and I believe Calculated Risk has come up with similar projections himself. Its worth bearing in mind that my projection is based on the following "givens": Obama's Stimulus plan being over 800B and that the US will nationalize major banks QUICKLY. Both of these are policy responses and may not happen in Q1 of 2008 and if there is a substantial delay by the Obama Administration - the recession may drag out further into 2010. I am making my business plans on the assumption that Q1 of 2010 will see the end of the recession.
Roubini: Two Year Recession
by CalculatedRisk on 1/08/2009 04:30:00 PM
From Rex Nutting at MarketWatch: Roubini forecasts recession will last 2 years
The U.S. recession will last two full years, with gross domestic product falling a cumulative 5%, said Nouriel Roubini, ... For 2009, Roubini predicts GDP will fall 3.4%, with declines in every quarter of the year. The unemployment rate should peak at about 9% in early 2010 ...
Roubini is forecasting a pretty serious recession, but far short of a "depression" which is usually defined as a 10% decline in real GDP.
The concensus (and the Fed forecast) is that the economy will bottom in Q2 2009 with a sluggish recovery in the 2nd half of this year.
The recession started officially around Dec 06 - Jan 07. Roubini is prediciting that the recession will last through Jan ' 09 ish. This is exactly my prediction as well (read earlier posts) and I believe Calculated Risk has come up with similar projections himself. Its worth bearing in mind that my projection is based on the following "givens": Obama's Stimulus plan being over 800B and that the US will nationalize major banks QUICKLY. Both of these are policy responses and may not happen in Q1 of 2008 and if there is a substantial delay by the Obama Administration - the recession may drag out further into 2010. I am making my business plans on the assumption that Q1 of 2010 will see the end of the recession.
Wednesday, January 7, 2009
Whitney on the 300B TARP Funds
via FT
Whitney: TARP funds go down the downgrade drainPosted by Sam Jones on Jan 07 14:43.
La lutte continue.
Forget the short-lived buzz of $300bn in TARP stimulus, pain for the banks is far from over. Real deleveraging is only just beginning to gather speed; the world economy has yet to enter its worst months, and there are certainly more writedowns to come.
Oppenheimer’s Meredith Whitney is - when it comes to banks’ capital positions - the analyst to turn to. And fortunately, she has a note out today:We now believe that, at a minimum, capital ratios will be meaningfully lower in the fourth quarter versus post TARP pro forma levels. Aside from the greater than $40 billion in writedowns and provisions we expect for the group of bank stocks under our coverage, and earnings pressure related to chronic negative operating leverage, we also expect capital strains to become apparent from ratings change pressures. Accordingly, we maintain our cautious stance on our group.
The thrust of Whitney’s note is nothing new: she reiterates her “ring of fire” position, whereby ratings downgrades on securities owned by the banks punch huge holes in banks’ balance sheets thanks to onerous regulatory capital requirements. Lower rated securities require larger amounts of regulatory capital in reserve.
And for anyone sceptical as to the significance of that relationship…
The interesting part of the latest note comes in quantifying the scale of the rating agency downgrades so far - and more importantly, demonstrating that the worst of them have only just worked through:
Clearly, Q4 of 2008 was the worst period so far in terms of security downgrades by a country mile:
The effect of those Q4 downgrades, estimates Whitney, will be to more or less drain all TARP money pumped into the system so far. Expressed below as Opco analysts on upcoming writedowns for Wall Steet’s finest:
(Click on the image for a larger version)
Whitney: TARP funds go down the downgrade drainPosted by Sam Jones on Jan 07 14:43.
La lutte continue.
Forget the short-lived buzz of $300bn in TARP stimulus, pain for the banks is far from over. Real deleveraging is only just beginning to gather speed; the world economy has yet to enter its worst months, and there are certainly more writedowns to come.
Oppenheimer’s Meredith Whitney is - when it comes to banks’ capital positions - the analyst to turn to. And fortunately, she has a note out today:We now believe that, at a minimum, capital ratios will be meaningfully lower in the fourth quarter versus post TARP pro forma levels. Aside from the greater than $40 billion in writedowns and provisions we expect for the group of bank stocks under our coverage, and earnings pressure related to chronic negative operating leverage, we also expect capital strains to become apparent from ratings change pressures. Accordingly, we maintain our cautious stance on our group.
The thrust of Whitney’s note is nothing new: she reiterates her “ring of fire” position, whereby ratings downgrades on securities owned by the banks punch huge holes in banks’ balance sheets thanks to onerous regulatory capital requirements. Lower rated securities require larger amounts of regulatory capital in reserve.
And for anyone sceptical as to the significance of that relationship…
The interesting part of the latest note comes in quantifying the scale of the rating agency downgrades so far - and more importantly, demonstrating that the worst of them have only just worked through:
Clearly, Q4 of 2008 was the worst period so far in terms of security downgrades by a country mile:
The effect of those Q4 downgrades, estimates Whitney, will be to more or less drain all TARP money pumped into the system so far. Expressed below as Opco analysts on upcoming writedowns for Wall Steet’s finest:
(Click on the image for a larger version)
Calculated Risk on FOMC Statement
Fed Fears Long Recession
by CalculatedRisk on 1/06/2009 02:17:00 PM
The Fed projects GDP to decline in 2009 "as a whole", and unemployment to "rise significantly into 2010". The Fed also expects disinflationary pressures to continue into 2010.
From the FOMC Minutes:
In the forecast prepared for the meeting, the staff revised down sharply its outlook for economic activity in 2009 but continued to project a moderate recovery in 2010. Real GDP appeared likely to decline substantially in the fourth quarter of 2008 as conditions in the labor market deteriorated more steeply than previously anticipated; the decline in industrial production intensified; consumer and business spending appeared to weaken; and financial conditions, on balance, continued to tighten. Rising unemployment, the declines in stock market wealth, low levels of consumer sentiment, weakened household balance sheets, and restrictive credit conditions were likely to continue to hinder household spending over the near term.
Homebuilding was expected to contract further. Business expenditures were also likely to be held back by a weaker sales outlook and tighter credit conditions. Oil prices, which dropped significantly during the intermeeting period, were assumed to rise over the next two years in line with the path indicated by futures market prices, but to remain below the levels of October 2008. All told, real GDP was expected to fall much more sharply in the first half of 2009 than previously anticipated, before slowly recovering over the remainder of the year as the stimulus from monetary and assumed fiscal policy actions gained traction and the turmoil in the financial system began to recede. Real GDP was projected to decline for 2009 as a whole and to rise at a pace slightly above the rate of potential growth in 2010. Amid the weaker outlook for economic activity over the next year, the unemployment rate was likely to rise significantly into 2010, to a level higher than projected at the time of the October 28-29 FOMC meeting. The disinflationary effects of increased slack in resource utilization, diminished pressures from energy and materials prices, declines in import prices, and further moderate reductions in inflation expectations caused the staff to reduce its forecast for both core and overall PCE inflation. Core inflation was projected to slow considerably in 2009 and then to edge down further in 2010.
emphasis added
by CalculatedRisk on 1/06/2009 02:17:00 PM
The Fed projects GDP to decline in 2009 "as a whole", and unemployment to "rise significantly into 2010". The Fed also expects disinflationary pressures to continue into 2010.
From the FOMC Minutes:
In the forecast prepared for the meeting, the staff revised down sharply its outlook for economic activity in 2009 but continued to project a moderate recovery in 2010. Real GDP appeared likely to decline substantially in the fourth quarter of 2008 as conditions in the labor market deteriorated more steeply than previously anticipated; the decline in industrial production intensified; consumer and business spending appeared to weaken; and financial conditions, on balance, continued to tighten. Rising unemployment, the declines in stock market wealth, low levels of consumer sentiment, weakened household balance sheets, and restrictive credit conditions were likely to continue to hinder household spending over the near term.
Homebuilding was expected to contract further. Business expenditures were also likely to be held back by a weaker sales outlook and tighter credit conditions. Oil prices, which dropped significantly during the intermeeting period, were assumed to rise over the next two years in line with the path indicated by futures market prices, but to remain below the levels of October 2008. All told, real GDP was expected to fall much more sharply in the first half of 2009 than previously anticipated, before slowly recovering over the remainder of the year as the stimulus from monetary and assumed fiscal policy actions gained traction and the turmoil in the financial system began to recede. Real GDP was projected to decline for 2009 as a whole and to rise at a pace slightly above the rate of potential growth in 2010. Amid the weaker outlook for economic activity over the next year, the unemployment rate was likely to rise significantly into 2010, to a level higher than projected at the time of the October 28-29 FOMC meeting. The disinflationary effects of increased slack in resource utilization, diminished pressures from energy and materials prices, declines in import prices, and further moderate reductions in inflation expectations caused the staff to reduce its forecast for both core and overall PCE inflation. Core inflation was projected to slow considerably in 2009 and then to edge down further in 2010.
emphasis added
Tuesday, January 6, 2009
Record of the Year - 2008
The Grammy nominations are for
Record Of The Year (Award to the Artist and to the Producer(s), Recording Engineer(s) and/or Mixer(s), if other than the artist.)
Chasing Pavements Adele Eg White, producer; Tom Elmhirst & Steve Price, engineers/mixersTrack from: 19[XL Recordings/Columbia]
Viva La Vida ColdplayMarkus Dravs, Brian Eno & Rik Simpson, producers; Michael Brauer & Rik Simpson, engineers/mixersTrack from: Viva La Vida Or Death And All His Friends[Capitol Records]
Bleeding Love Leona Lewis Simon Cowell, Clive Davis & Ryan "Alias" Tedder, producers; Craig Durrance, Phil Tan & Ryan "Alias" Tedder, engineers/mixers[J Records/SYCO Music]
Paper Planes M.I.A Diplo, producer; Switch, engineer/mixerTrack from: Kala[Interscope]
Please Read The Letter Robert Plant & Alison KraussT Bone Burnett, producer; Mike Piersante, engineer/mixerTrack from: Raising Sand [Rounder]
My favorites are down to two: Viva La Vida and Please Read the Letter
Here's Coldplay - if you dont love it - you're nuts.
I have seen Robert Plant and Alison Krauss in concert - therefore - they are my personal favorites. Both are incredibly talented. Good album and phenomenal song.
And yes they performed Stairway to Heaven live at that concert. Unreal.
Here are the lyrics...
Caught out running
With just a little too much to hide
Maybe baby
Everything's gonna turn out fine
Please read the letter
I mailed it to your door
It's crazy how it all turned out
We needed so much more
Too late, too late
A fool could read the signs
Maybe baby
You'd better check between the lines
Please read the letter, I
Wrote it in my sleep
With help and consultation from
The angels of the deep
Ahhhhhhh.... Ahhhhh... Ahhhhhhaaa....
Please read the letter that I wrote
Please read the letter that I wrote
Once I stood beside a well of many words
My house was full of rings and
Charms and pretty birds
Please understand me, my
Walls come falling down
There's nothing here that's left for you
So check with lost and found
Ahhhhhhh.... Ahhhhh... Ahhhhhhaaa....
Please read the letter that I wrote
Please read the letter that I wrote
One more song just before we go
Remember baby
You got to reap just what you sow
Please read my letter
And promise me you'll keep
The secrets and the memories we
Cherish in the deep
Please read the letter
I mailed it to your door
Its crazy how it all turned out
We needed so much more....
Please read the letter that I wrote
Please read the letter that I wrote
Please read the letter that I wrote
Please read the letter that I wrote
Please read the letter that I wrote
Please read the letter that I wrote
Record Of The Year (Award to the Artist and to the Producer(s), Recording Engineer(s) and/or Mixer(s), if other than the artist.)
Chasing Pavements Adele Eg White, producer; Tom Elmhirst & Steve Price, engineers/mixersTrack from: 19[XL Recordings/Columbia]
Viva La Vida ColdplayMarkus Dravs, Brian Eno & Rik Simpson, producers; Michael Brauer & Rik Simpson, engineers/mixersTrack from: Viva La Vida Or Death And All His Friends[Capitol Records]
Bleeding Love Leona Lewis Simon Cowell, Clive Davis & Ryan "Alias" Tedder, producers; Craig Durrance, Phil Tan & Ryan "Alias" Tedder, engineers/mixers[J Records/SYCO Music]
Paper Planes M.I.A Diplo, producer; Switch, engineer/mixerTrack from: Kala[Interscope]
Please Read The Letter Robert Plant & Alison KraussT Bone Burnett, producer; Mike Piersante, engineer/mixerTrack from: Raising Sand [Rounder]
My favorites are down to two: Viva La Vida and Please Read the Letter
Here's Coldplay - if you dont love it - you're nuts.
I have seen Robert Plant and Alison Krauss in concert - therefore - they are my personal favorites. Both are incredibly talented. Good album and phenomenal song.
And yes they performed Stairway to Heaven live at that concert. Unreal.
Here are the lyrics...
Caught out running
With just a little too much to hide
Maybe baby
Everything's gonna turn out fine
Please read the letter
I mailed it to your door
It's crazy how it all turned out
We needed so much more
Too late, too late
A fool could read the signs
Maybe baby
You'd better check between the lines
Please read the letter, I
Wrote it in my sleep
With help and consultation from
The angels of the deep
Ahhhhhhh.... Ahhhhh... Ahhhhhhaaa....
Please read the letter that I wrote
Please read the letter that I wrote
Once I stood beside a well of many words
My house was full of rings and
Charms and pretty birds
Please understand me, my
Walls come falling down
There's nothing here that's left for you
So check with lost and found
Ahhhhhhh.... Ahhhhh... Ahhhhhhaaa....
Please read the letter that I wrote
Please read the letter that I wrote
One more song just before we go
Remember baby
You got to reap just what you sow
Please read my letter
And promise me you'll keep
The secrets and the memories we
Cherish in the deep
Please read the letter
I mailed it to your door
Its crazy how it all turned out
We needed so much more....
Please read the letter that I wrote
Please read the letter that I wrote
Please read the letter that I wrote
Please read the letter that I wrote
Please read the letter that I wrote
Please read the letter that I wrote
Obama's America 2009
from www.nytimes.com
January 6, 2009
Transcript
Obama’s Media Availability
The following is a rush transcript of President-Elect Barack Obama’s media availability as provided by the Obama team.
Obama: When the American people spoke last November, they were demanding change, change in policies that helped deliver the worst economic crisis that we've seen since the Great Depression, but they're also looking for a change in the way that Washington does business. They were demanding that we restore a sense of responsibility and prudence to how we'd run our government.
One of the measures of irresponsibility that we've seen is the enormous federal debt that has accumulated, a number that has doubled in recent years. As we just discussed, my budget team filled me in on - Peter Orszag now forecasts that, at the current course and speed, a trillion-dollar deficit will be here before we even start the next budget, that we've already looked - we're already looking at a trillion-dollar budget deficit or close to a trillion-dollar budget deficit, and that potentially we've got trillion-dollar deficits for years to come, even with the economic recovery that we are working on at this point.
So the reason I raise this is that we're going to have to stop talking about budget reform. We're going to have to totally embrace it. It's an absolute necessity.
And it has to begin with the economic recovery and reinvestment plan that Congress will soon be considering, that we're going to be investing an extraordinary amount of money to jump-start our economy, save or create 3 million new jobs, mostly in the private sector, and lay a solid foundation for future growth.
But we're not going to be able to expect the American people to support this critical effort unless we take extraordinary steps to ensure that the investments are made wisely and managed well. And that's why my recovery and reinvestment plan will have - will set a new higher standard of accountability, transparency, and oversight.
We are going to ban all earmarks, the process by which individual members insert pet projects without review. We will create an economic recovery oversight board made up of key administration officials and independent advisers to identify problems early and make sure we're doing all that we can to solve it. We will put information about where money is being spent online so that the American people know exactly where their precious tax dollars are going and whether we are hitting our marks.
But we're not going to be able to stop there. We're going to have to bring significant reform not just to our recovery and reinvestment plan, but to the overall budget process, to address both the deficit of dollars and the deficit of trust. We'll have to make tough choices, and we're going to have to break old habits. We're going to have to eliminate outmoded programs and make the ones that we do need work better.
That's the challenge that I've handed to Peter, and Rob Nabors, and the rest of my budget team. That's the challenge that the American people have handed me. They know that we're at a perilous crossroad and that tinkering in the margins will not do.
I'm going to have more to say about this subject tomorrow, but today I wanted to lay out an early marker with those that I've entrusted to help bring the changes that the American people voted for. We are going to bring a long-overdue sense of responsibility and accountability to Washington. We are going to stop talking about government reform, and we're actually going to start executing.
That's the charge that I've given the members of the administration. That's the charge that was given to me by the American people. And we are ready for the challenge.
So with that, I'm going to take some questions. And let's start with you.
Question: Thank you, Mr. President-elect. Do you think that you'll be submitting a budget larger than the $3.1 trillion that President Bush submitted for fiscal '09? And, also, what are you doing to address concerns from other Democrats about deficit spending and increasing the deficit with the stimulus package?
Obama: Well, you know, I don't want to get into particular budget numbers, because we're obviously still in the process of reviewing what the existing budget looks like, where we can obtain some savings, what programs we can potentially eliminate. We will be submitting that budget later, after we've submitted the recovery and reinvestment plan.
I can give you a set of general principles, though. We know that we're going to have to spend money to jump-start the economy. I spoke about that yesterday.
We know that even if we did nothing that we have close to a trillion-dollar deficit, even if we were on the current path that we're on. And we know that we have to then implement a set of fiscal measures that deal with the medium and long term so that we have a sustainable path of economic growth.
So what I've assigned Peter to do is - and Rob and others - is to work with my economic team. They are part of the team that is putting together the accountability and oversight measures into the recovery act, but they also have this broader charge, which is, how do we get a fix on this budget so that, as the economy recovers, we start stabilizing the economy and - and getting our budget under control?
It's not just Democrat or Republican colleagues on the Hill that are concerned about this. I'm concerned about this. And so what I've said is, I'm going to be willing to make some very difficult choices in how we get a handle on this deficit. That's what the American people are looking for.
And, you know, what we intend to do this year, next year, and all the years that I'm in office is to demonstrate our seriousness, not by gimmicks, not by punting to future administrations the tough choices, but by making some of those tough choices while I'm in office.
Question: ... Earmarks, you said there will be none that get in there without review. Some people would argue even the so-called bridge to nowhere got review, some level of review ...
Obama: No, no, no. What I'm saying is - let me repeat what I said about that ... We will ban all earmarks in the recovery package. And I describe earmarks as the process by which individual members insert pet projects without review. So what I'm saying is, we're not having earmarks in the recovery package, period. I was describing what earmarks are.
Question: So there's - you're not suggesting there's some level of review that might ...
Obama: I'm saying there are no earmarks in the recovery package. That, that is the position that I'm taking.
Question: Well, if I may, I was just wondering if $200,000 sounds like about the right level at which the tax credits would be phased out. I know that's been thrown out there ...
Obama: You know, look, I think you can get some guidance from what I said during the campaign, but I don't want to be locked in to a particular number, Chuck, just because we're still formulating the details of the plan. OK ...
Question: Some are - some are questioning Leon Panetta's lack of intelligence - lack of experience on intelligence matters. Sorry about that. I know this is tricky for you since you haven't announced it yet, but what does he bring to the table for you?
Obama: Well, as you noted, I haven't made - haven't made a formal announcement about my intelligence team.
(cell phone rings)
Obama: That may be him calling now... finding out where it's at.
Obama: I have the utmost respect for Leon Panetta. I think that he is one of the finest public servants that we have. He brings extraordinary management skills, great political savvy, an impeccable record of integrity.
As chief of staff, he is somebody who - to the president - he's somebody who obviously was fully versed in international affairs, crisis management, and had to evaluate intelligence consistently on a day-to-day basis.
Having said all that, I have not made an announcement. When we make the announcement, I think what people will see is, is that we are putting together a top-notch intelligence team that is not only going to assure that I get the best possible intelligence unvarnished, that the intelligence community is no longer geared towards telling the president what they think the president wants to hear, but instead are going to be delivering the information that the president needs to make critical decisions to keep the American people safe.
I think what you're also going to see is a team that is committed to breaking with some of the past practices and concerns that have, I think, tarnished the image of the agencies, the intelligence agencies, as well as U.S. foreign policy.
Last point I will make, though, on this is that there are outstanding intelligence professionals in the CIA, in DNI, and others, and I have the utmost regard for the work that they've done, and we are committed to making sure that this is a team effort that's not looking backwards, but is looking forward to figure out how we're going to serve the American people best, OK?
Question: Thank you, Mr. President-elect. You're being put under a lot of pressure internationally to get more involved in the situation in Gaza. I understand you think there should only be one president at a time, but what do you have to say to the Israelis and the Palestinians who are fighting and dying in Gaza?
Obama: As I've said before, when it comes to foreign policy, I think the need to adhere to one president at a time is particularly important. In domestic policy, Democrats, Republicans, we can have arguments back and forth about what tax policies are going to be. When it comes to international affairs, other countries are looking to see who speaks for America. Right now, President George Bush, as president of the United States, speaks on behalf of the U.S. government and the American people when it comes to international affairs.
Obviously, I am deeply concerned about the conflict that's taking place there. I'm being fully briefed and monitored - monitoring the situation on a day-to-day basis. The loss of civilian life in Gaza and in Israel is a source of deep concern for me.
And after January 20th, I am going to have plenty to say about the issue. And I am not backing away at all from what I said during the campaign, that I - starting at the beginning of our administration, we are going to engage effectively and consistently in trying to resolve the conflicts that exist in the Middle East.
That's something that I'm committed to. I think it's not only right for the people in that region; most importantly, it's right for the national security of the American people and the stability that is so important to this country. So on January 20th, you will be hearing directly from me and my opinions on this issue. Until then, my job is to monitor the situation and put together the best possible national security team so that we hit the ground running once we are responsible for national security issues.
January 6, 2009
Transcript
Obama’s Media Availability
The following is a rush transcript of President-Elect Barack Obama’s media availability as provided by the Obama team.
Obama: When the American people spoke last November, they were demanding change, change in policies that helped deliver the worst economic crisis that we've seen since the Great Depression, but they're also looking for a change in the way that Washington does business. They were demanding that we restore a sense of responsibility and prudence to how we'd run our government.
One of the measures of irresponsibility that we've seen is the enormous federal debt that has accumulated, a number that has doubled in recent years. As we just discussed, my budget team filled me in on - Peter Orszag now forecasts that, at the current course and speed, a trillion-dollar deficit will be here before we even start the next budget, that we've already looked - we're already looking at a trillion-dollar budget deficit or close to a trillion-dollar budget deficit, and that potentially we've got trillion-dollar deficits for years to come, even with the economic recovery that we are working on at this point.
So the reason I raise this is that we're going to have to stop talking about budget reform. We're going to have to totally embrace it. It's an absolute necessity.
And it has to begin with the economic recovery and reinvestment plan that Congress will soon be considering, that we're going to be investing an extraordinary amount of money to jump-start our economy, save or create 3 million new jobs, mostly in the private sector, and lay a solid foundation for future growth.
But we're not going to be able to expect the American people to support this critical effort unless we take extraordinary steps to ensure that the investments are made wisely and managed well. And that's why my recovery and reinvestment plan will have - will set a new higher standard of accountability, transparency, and oversight.
We are going to ban all earmarks, the process by which individual members insert pet projects without review. We will create an economic recovery oversight board made up of key administration officials and independent advisers to identify problems early and make sure we're doing all that we can to solve it. We will put information about where money is being spent online so that the American people know exactly where their precious tax dollars are going and whether we are hitting our marks.
But we're not going to be able to stop there. We're going to have to bring significant reform not just to our recovery and reinvestment plan, but to the overall budget process, to address both the deficit of dollars and the deficit of trust. We'll have to make tough choices, and we're going to have to break old habits. We're going to have to eliminate outmoded programs and make the ones that we do need work better.
That's the challenge that I've handed to Peter, and Rob Nabors, and the rest of my budget team. That's the challenge that the American people have handed me. They know that we're at a perilous crossroad and that tinkering in the margins will not do.
I'm going to have more to say about this subject tomorrow, but today I wanted to lay out an early marker with those that I've entrusted to help bring the changes that the American people voted for. We are going to bring a long-overdue sense of responsibility and accountability to Washington. We are going to stop talking about government reform, and we're actually going to start executing.
That's the charge that I've given the members of the administration. That's the charge that was given to me by the American people. And we are ready for the challenge.
So with that, I'm going to take some questions. And let's start with you.
Question: Thank you, Mr. President-elect. Do you think that you'll be submitting a budget larger than the $3.1 trillion that President Bush submitted for fiscal '09? And, also, what are you doing to address concerns from other Democrats about deficit spending and increasing the deficit with the stimulus package?
Obama: Well, you know, I don't want to get into particular budget numbers, because we're obviously still in the process of reviewing what the existing budget looks like, where we can obtain some savings, what programs we can potentially eliminate. We will be submitting that budget later, after we've submitted the recovery and reinvestment plan.
I can give you a set of general principles, though. We know that we're going to have to spend money to jump-start the economy. I spoke about that yesterday.
We know that even if we did nothing that we have close to a trillion-dollar deficit, even if we were on the current path that we're on. And we know that we have to then implement a set of fiscal measures that deal with the medium and long term so that we have a sustainable path of economic growth.
So what I've assigned Peter to do is - and Rob and others - is to work with my economic team. They are part of the team that is putting together the accountability and oversight measures into the recovery act, but they also have this broader charge, which is, how do we get a fix on this budget so that, as the economy recovers, we start stabilizing the economy and - and getting our budget under control?
It's not just Democrat or Republican colleagues on the Hill that are concerned about this. I'm concerned about this. And so what I've said is, I'm going to be willing to make some very difficult choices in how we get a handle on this deficit. That's what the American people are looking for.
And, you know, what we intend to do this year, next year, and all the years that I'm in office is to demonstrate our seriousness, not by gimmicks, not by punting to future administrations the tough choices, but by making some of those tough choices while I'm in office.
Question: ... Earmarks, you said there will be none that get in there without review. Some people would argue even the so-called bridge to nowhere got review, some level of review ...
Obama: No, no, no. What I'm saying is - let me repeat what I said about that ... We will ban all earmarks in the recovery package. And I describe earmarks as the process by which individual members insert pet projects without review. So what I'm saying is, we're not having earmarks in the recovery package, period. I was describing what earmarks are.
Question: So there's - you're not suggesting there's some level of review that might ...
Obama: I'm saying there are no earmarks in the recovery package. That, that is the position that I'm taking.
Question: Well, if I may, I was just wondering if $200,000 sounds like about the right level at which the tax credits would be phased out. I know that's been thrown out there ...
Obama: You know, look, I think you can get some guidance from what I said during the campaign, but I don't want to be locked in to a particular number, Chuck, just because we're still formulating the details of the plan. OK ...
Question: Some are - some are questioning Leon Panetta's lack of intelligence - lack of experience on intelligence matters. Sorry about that. I know this is tricky for you since you haven't announced it yet, but what does he bring to the table for you?
Obama: Well, as you noted, I haven't made - haven't made a formal announcement about my intelligence team.
(cell phone rings)
Obama: That may be him calling now... finding out where it's at.
Obama: I have the utmost respect for Leon Panetta. I think that he is one of the finest public servants that we have. He brings extraordinary management skills, great political savvy, an impeccable record of integrity.
As chief of staff, he is somebody who - to the president - he's somebody who obviously was fully versed in international affairs, crisis management, and had to evaluate intelligence consistently on a day-to-day basis.
Having said all that, I have not made an announcement. When we make the announcement, I think what people will see is, is that we are putting together a top-notch intelligence team that is not only going to assure that I get the best possible intelligence unvarnished, that the intelligence community is no longer geared towards telling the president what they think the president wants to hear, but instead are going to be delivering the information that the president needs to make critical decisions to keep the American people safe.
I think what you're also going to see is a team that is committed to breaking with some of the past practices and concerns that have, I think, tarnished the image of the agencies, the intelligence agencies, as well as U.S. foreign policy.
Last point I will make, though, on this is that there are outstanding intelligence professionals in the CIA, in DNI, and others, and I have the utmost regard for the work that they've done, and we are committed to making sure that this is a team effort that's not looking backwards, but is looking forward to figure out how we're going to serve the American people best, OK?
Question: Thank you, Mr. President-elect. You're being put under a lot of pressure internationally to get more involved in the situation in Gaza. I understand you think there should only be one president at a time, but what do you have to say to the Israelis and the Palestinians who are fighting and dying in Gaza?
Obama: As I've said before, when it comes to foreign policy, I think the need to adhere to one president at a time is particularly important. In domestic policy, Democrats, Republicans, we can have arguments back and forth about what tax policies are going to be. When it comes to international affairs, other countries are looking to see who speaks for America. Right now, President George Bush, as president of the United States, speaks on behalf of the U.S. government and the American people when it comes to international affairs.
Obviously, I am deeply concerned about the conflict that's taking place there. I'm being fully briefed and monitored - monitoring the situation on a day-to-day basis. The loss of civilian life in Gaza and in Israel is a source of deep concern for me.
And after January 20th, I am going to have plenty to say about the issue. And I am not backing away at all from what I said during the campaign, that I - starting at the beginning of our administration, we are going to engage effectively and consistently in trying to resolve the conflicts that exist in the Middle East.
That's something that I'm committed to. I think it's not only right for the people in that region; most importantly, it's right for the national security of the American people and the stability that is so important to this country. So on January 20th, you will be hearing directly from me and my opinions on this issue. Until then, my job is to monitor the situation and put together the best possible national security team so that we hit the ground running once we are responsible for national security issues.
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